INDIA Future 3 scenarios 1. Bolly-World 2. Atakta (Stuck) India 3. Pahale (First) India
SCENARIO 1 “BOLLYWORLD” INDIA CHARACTERIZED BY EXCLUSION Integration with the world BIRDS SCRAMBLING WOLVES PROWLING Exclusive Inclusive growth and growth and development development Isolation from the world - 10 -
SCENARIO 2 “ATAKTA BHARAT” INDIA STUCK Integration with the world Exclusive growth and development Inclusive growth BUFFALOES WALLOWING and development Isolation from the world - 11 -
SCENARIO 3 “PAHALE BHARAT” INDIA FIRST Integration FIREFLIES with the ARISING world Exclusive Inclusive growth and growth and development development Isolation for the world - 12 -
CHOICE IMPLICATIONS Integration with the world I IIExclusive growthand development Inclusive growth and IV III development Isolation from the world - 13 -
CHOICE IMPLICATIONS 2012Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting, and the National Council for Applied Economic Research (India) - 14 -
CHOICE IMPLICATIONS In the balance of poverty- 120 million citizensSource: Oxford Economic Forecasting, and the National Council for Applied Economic Research (India) - 15 -
THE BIG QUESTIONCAN (WILL) INDIA TRANSFORM 1.5 BILLION LIVES ?
TO MAKE IT HAPPEN, INDIA MUST…– Reform– Build Infrastructure– Educate its young population– Meet Health needs– Provide Livelihoods ENSURE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH !
INDIA Reasons to be POSITIVE - Inherent Resilience
RESILIENCE THROUGH ENTREPRENEURSHIPConfident, yet awareof Situational Reality… Flexible & ready to change
RESILIENCE THROUGH INSTITUTIONSDemocracyLaw & OrderFree PressCivil Society
Hence, RESILIENT THROUGH CRISISIndia successfully weathered the Financial Crisis !Over the past decade, Returns for Investors inIndia - 400% - 500%LSE – 100%NASDAQ/ DJX – 10% - 20%
RESILIENT THROUGH STRONG FUNDAMENTALS GDP Composition Labour Force Services Agriculture • GDP/ Workforce = $9,100 34% 18% • 34% of services workforce Agriculture Services Industry driving 56% of the economy 52% 56% 26% • GDP/ Service Sector Industry Workforce = $26,800 14% TOTAL GDP (PPP, $ TRILLION) GDP PER CAPITA (PPP, $) CAGR 8.9% CAGR 7.4% 4.46 3,616 4.11 3,419 3.76 3,134 Declining Rate of Population growth, Rising per Capita Incomes FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
“ I have travelled across the length and breadth of India and I have not seen one person who is a beggar, who is a thief. Such wealth I have seen in this country, such high moral values, people of such caliber…. ” - Lord Macaulay Address to the British Parliament 2nd February, 1835
FUNDAMENTALS STRONG FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENTS & GROWTH FIREFLIES ARISING Integration with the world Inclusive growthExclusive growth and developmentand development Isolation for the world