Mindshare Cairo - Egyptian Revolution and Impact on The Egyptian Advertising Scene

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Mindshare Cairo - Egyptian Revolution and Impact on The Egyptian Advertising Scene

  1. 1. 131-03-2011 Egyptian Revolution Whats next? And how would this affect the media industry?
  2. 2. 31-03-2011 2
  3. 3. 331-03-2011 Egypt Revolution 2011 • January 1st, 2011 12:30 am: As Egypt was celebrating New Year’s; a massive explosion shook Alexandria infront of The Church of the Two Saints, killing 23 people in a tragic start for 2011 in Egypt. • January 1st-25th 2011: People blamed the corrupt regime for poverty, hunger, misleading media and general deterioration in living conditions. Thus leading to such a tragic event and a possible sectarian strife amongst Muslims and Christians in Egypt. It was the straw that broke the camels back. A general agreement to go out and protest were announced through Facebook and Twitter, mushrooming to the rest of the population via word of mouth. The event attendees surpassed 500,000 Facebook users from Egypt. • January 25th 2011: Huge protests bursted out in all of Egypt governorates, asking for a change in regime.. • February 11th 2011: After 18 days of continuous protests, Egyptian President; Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from office.
  4. 4. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption4 Short Term – 1st Few Days31-03-2011 MEDIA RESPONSE CONSUMER RESPONSE ADVERTISING RESPONSE  Broadcasters suspend regular  TVviewing levels increase  Mostadvertisers immediately programming dramatically cease all communication.  Onlycertain niche cable  Viewing shifts to news coverage networks and specialized independent stations maintain  Print circulation rises. schedules (OSN, Rotana Cinema, Melody Aflam…etc)  Split between governmental and independent newspapers, due  Sportsand cultural events to a major difference in news canceled (Indefinite Suspension coverage and views. of Egyptian League, Cancellation of Cairo Int’l Book  Internet use rises (for the first 3 Fair ) days, before the communication blackout)  Newspapers add extra coverage of event; cancel/diminish other  Consumers minds are on the editorial event and nothing else  No Magazines being published.  Radiosuspends regular programming and replaces with patriotic songs and news updates.
  5. 5. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption5 Medium Term – Throughout the first month31-03-2011 MEDIA RESPONSE CONSUMER RESPONSE ADVERTISING RESPONSE  Broadcasters begin to get back  Viewing levels are still high  Some advertisers reappear with to regular programming though compared to normal ads geared to current events they may interrupt for (patriotic messages) occasional updates  Entertainment programming ratings start getting back to  Other advertising cautiously  Satellite News networks get normal, though some programs; resumes as time proceeds increased ratings (Al Jazeera, Al mainly talkshows may seem to Arabiya, BBC Arabic..etc) benefit (examples: El Ashera  Advertisers during the revolution Masa’an, El Hayat El Yom, 90 particularly concerned about  Sportsevents and cultural Dakika) News programming (we dont events remain cancelled want to appear to be sponsoring  Print circulation higher than the protests)  Clash of views between normal.. More people reading governmental and independent independent newspapers as their newspapers views are neutral, not biased to either party  Onlysome Magazines have produced their February issues  Internet use stays higher than (2 weeks after their scheduled normal. Twitter and Facebook release date) new users skyrocket as users want to get instant news updates.  Radioreturns most of the regular programming, with  Consumers minds begin to focus some additions (specialized on other things, the highlight programs for the revolution) remains on the current events though.
  6. 6. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption6 Long Term – After the first month31-03-2011 MEDIA RESPONSE CONSUMER RESPONSE ADVERTISING RESPONSE  Backto Regular  Viewing levels begin to return to A significant drop of advertising programming. normal spends of 27% in Feb 2011 YOY although Feb 2010 witnessed an  Cablenews networks get  Talkshows score tremendously increase of 58% YOY increased ratings (OSN for high Al Qahera Al Yom)  Advertising messages split  Print back to normal between:  Culturalevents resume normal schedules, Sports  Effect on internet use 1.Patriotic messages (together to Events still suspended (eg: undeterminable due to natural support Egypt…etc) Egyptian League) growth patterns for medium 2.CSR Project announcements 3.Regular advertising (with least  Magazinesand  Consumersminds embrace the frequency) newspapers resume more "new normal"--things different but non-news editorial the same
  7. 7. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption7 TV Viewership (Total Population)31-03-2011 300 250 200 Total Rating 150 100 50 0 Time segment Feb.2011 Jan.11 Dec.10 Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011
  8. 8. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption8 Top Channels – Rating points31-03-2011 160 140 120 Total Rating Point 100 80 60 40 20 0 Al Hayat Dream 2 Al Al Arabia Al Jazeera ESC1 Egypt Rotana Panorama Al Hayat (GE)1 Mehwar Sat Channel Cinema Al Drama 2 TV 1 Dec.10 Jan.11 Feb.11 Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011
  9. 9. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption9 Top Channels – Daily Reach31-03-2011 35 30 25 Daily Reach 20 15 10 5 0 Al Hayat Dream 2 Al Al Arabia ESC1 Al Jazeera Egypt Rotana Panorama Al Hayat (GE)1 Mehwar Sat Channel Cinema Al Drama 2 TV 1 Dec.10 Jan.11 Feb.11 Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011
  10. 10. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption10 TV Viewership (by program genre)31-03-2011 30 15 13.9 Week 6 (6-13 February 2011) Week 3 (17-23 January 2011) 24.9 25 11.8 10.8 10.6 10.6 20.2 9.9 20 18.7 10 9.2 14.2 GRPs 15 12.9 GRPs 11.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 10.5 10 8.9 8.1 7.3 5 5 0 0 Program 30 28.4 Week 7 (14-20 February 2011) Program 25 20.2 Arabic Serial Dubbed Serial Religious Program 20 Talkshow News 16.0 14.3 GRPs 15 11.2 • Talkshows and News have prevailed as the most viewed program genres.. 10 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.7 6.9 5 • News was more commonly viewed during the revolution events, however after the stepdown, 0 talkshows is becoming more popular as people look forward to hearing politicians discuss the future of Egypt rather than newsflashes and updates Program Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011
  11. 11. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption11 TV Viewership (by program genre – cont’d)31-03-2011 30 30 Week 8 (21-27 February 2011) Week 9 (28 February – 6 March 2011) 25 24.0 25 24.0 20 17.8 20 17.8 15.5 15.5 14.6 14.6 GRPs GRPs 15 15 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 9.8 9.8 10 10 7.5 6.8 7.5 6.8 6.7 6.7 5 5 0 0 Programs Programs Arabic Serial Dubbed Serial Religious Program Talkshow News Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011
  12. 12. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption12 Online – Website Genres31-03-2011 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Unique Browsers 800,000 600,000 Communication 400,000 Blackout 200,000 0 17-27 Jan 28 Jan - 1 Feb 2-12 Feb 12-20 Feb Period General Portals (including News) Sports Technology Women Source: Effective Measure
  13. 13. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption13 Online (Social Networks)31-03-2011 100%+ growth in traffic over a period of 2 weeks.. Egyptian youth is now online more than ever! Source: Google Trends – Target Market Egypt
  14. 14. Expected implications on media vehicles1431-03-2011 Overall Advertising Market: A predicted drop of 30-35% in advertising spends in CY2011 Due to the tough current market situation, media owners and representatives across all media vehicles are imposing more strict payment terms that would hinder the spends on advertising even further. TV: 1. Drop in advertising spends, only major players will be able to sustain the cost of TV advertising. Some genres may notice an increase in spends over others (eg: Talkshows and Political Programs will witness massive advertising support) 2. A notable decrease in the number of satellite channels (Cease of activity for deferred transmission channels; Melody Drama +2..etc), as TV broadcasting groups will not be able to support the cost of running a TV station if there is minimal cash inflow from advertisers. Radio: Increase in spending as cost of entry is relatively lower than other media, also because 2 strong radio stations (Mega FM and Radio Hits) launched mid 2010 and have gained massive popularity and are less cluttered than Nogoom FM (#1 station in terms of ad spends) Newspaper: Spends would remain more or less the same, however there is an expected shift across different newspapers as government newspapers have extremely lost credibility after the revolution, thus their readership will decrease. The difference in advertising spends will be compensated by the relatively new independent newspapers which have gained the readers trust.
  15. 15. Expected implications on media vehicles1531-03-2011 Magazines: Although we do expect advertising spends to remain the same on magazines (due to their very low cost of entry; as well as specialization) we believe that only major established titles will prevail, smaller titles and startups will suffer from the cut in overall advertising expenditure. Online: This will probably be the only medium that will walk out of this crisis as winner (due to the relatively low cost of entry and very high reach). Marketing staff have seen the impact that digital media (social media specifically) has had on the uprising that eventually led to the revolution, therefore it is of high importance for brands to be present to where the target audience is.
  16. 16. 1631-03-2011 To spend?? Or not to spend??
  17. 17. Effect of cutting on advertising budget on sales17 "If I stop advertising for two months, sales wont drop, but they will be hit three or four months down the line. People tend to make this mistake in a recession. It is31-03-2011 the wrong time to cut" Vikram Mehra CMO, Tata Sky(2) Source: Advertising on the edge – The Economist - 2008
  18. 18. Why should brands continue to advertise?1831-03-2011 BMW increases its SOV by sustaining/increasing adspends during recession/market slowdown “Brands that increase advertising during a recession, when competitors are cutting back, can improve market share and return on investment at lower costs during good economic times...” Prof John Quelch Harvard Business School Source: Advertising on the edge – The Economist - 2008
  19. 19. 1931-03-2011 What should brands communicate? Solidarity for Reform Special Offers/ Promotions CSR Initiatives, Philanthropy projects Consumers become very price sensitive for reform and rebuilding Egypt. during times of crisis as they know the economy is not stable , thus they will be very cautious about where and how they spend their money. Henkel hygiene initiative via giving out free detergents for volunteers Jotun initiative for a more beautiful and colorful Egypt by offering volunteers free paint and brushes
  20. 20. Do’s and Dont’s..2031-03-2011 - Too dramatic - Major value added to community - Out of brand character - Shows brand as a responsible player in - Wrong association of Pizza special the Egyptian society, thus raises brand offer to corruption in Egypt. image and loyalty.
  21. 21. So after the revolution… where is the Egyptian advertising2131-03-2011 industry going? • Major and quick reform required from all parties (clients, agencies and media suppliers) to guarantee best interests for everyone.. • Planning: This is an ideal time to be more engaging and move gradually from one way communication • Buying: A drop in spend means its an ideal time for clients to improve their deals and lock them for 3 years • Increased interest in digital post revolution results – however; the need of proper education as to avoid over saturation of medium • Most advertisers will wait for the political scene to come to a certain degree of rest before investing into advertising again, especially categories that have been affected the most (Real Estate, Finance/Banking and Automotive). • In our speculation, the overall market will return back to normal at least 6-9 months post the election of the new president / government. This may not be before Ramadan 2012.
  22. 22. 2231-03-2011 Thank you! For questions: ahmed.emad@mindsharemena.com

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