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Using Search to Predict the Winner of
American Idol Season 8:
Adam Lambert vs. Kris Allen

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Hypothesis and Methodology (Place logo in slide
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Hypothesis: Search data can help predict the winner of American Idol
• By reviewing search data and trends from Google Insights for the top
3 American Idol contestants, we are able to determine:
• Search popularity: Who has the most search volume at a given time?
• Regional searches: What are the top states searching for a contestant?
• Related searches: What other terms (or contestants) are searches
looking for?
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American Idol Season 5 (2006):
Taylor Hicks vs. Katharine McPhee
3

Hicks takes the lead in search a couple of weeks Insert Logo Here
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before the finale and his eventual victory
AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 5 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS
(APRIL – MAY 2006)
100
May 25th: Searches for Taylor
90 Hicks peak the day after he
claims the title
80
70
Elliot says goodbye; Hicks
60
is the search leader
50
40 McPhee receives more
searches than Hicks several
30 weeks before the finale
20
10
0
4/5/2006 4/12/2006 4/19/2006 4/26/2006 5/3/2006 5/10/2006 5/17/2006 Season Finale 5/31/2006
(5/24/2006)
taylor hicks katharine mcphee elliott yamin
Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 4

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Predicting Hicks over McPhee with search (Place logo in slide
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• Taylor Hicks had more searches than Katharine McPhee leading up to
the finale
• Elliott Yamin was generally not competitive in search with the 2
finalists overtime. Elliot’s relatively small fan base (as determined
by search) probably had a minimal effect on the final results
• Elliott’s top states (including his home state of Virginia) were
dominated by searches for Taylor Hicks (blue) in March and April
Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
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American Idol Season 6 (2007):
Jordin Sparks vs. Blake Lewis
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With 3 strong finalists competing to make the Insert Logo Here
top 2, 3rd place Doolittle’s fans appear to vote (Place logo in slide
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for Season 6 winner, Sparks, in the finale
AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 6 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS
(APRIL – MAY 2007)
May 24th: Searches for “Jordin
100 Sparks” surge after her victory
90
80 But with top contender Doolittle
out, who would her voters
70 support? Sparks and Lewis are
60
neck and neck in search
50
Blake Lewis appears to
40 be the early favorite…
30
20
10
0
4/4/2007 4/11/2007 4/18/2007 4/25/2007 5/2/2007 5/9/2007 5/16/2007 Season Finale 5/30/2007
(5/23/2007)
jordin sparks blake lewis melinda doolittle
Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 7

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Predicting Sparks over Blake with search (Place logo in slide
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• Unlike 3rd place finisher Elliot Yamin (Season 5), Melinda Doolittle
was competitive in search with the top 2 finalists
• Jordin Sparks (as well as 4th place contestant, Lakisha Jones)
received more related searches to Melinda than Blake in the months
leading up to the finale
Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
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American Idol Season 7 (2008):
David Cook vs. David Archuleta
9

In the weeks leading up to the finale, season 7 Insert Logo Here
winner, David Cook, is generally more popular (Place logo in slide
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in search than runner-up David Archuleta
AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 7 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS
(APRIL – MAY 2008)
100 May 22nd: The day
after Cook is declared
90 winner of the Davids
80 Searches for 3rd place
Syesha Mercado never
70 compete with the top 2
60
50
40 With a week and a half to
go, Archuleta surpasses
30
Cook but cannot hold on
20
10
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4/2/2008 4/9/2008 4/16/2008 4/23/2008 4/30/2008 5/7/2008 5/14/2008 Season Finale 5/28/2008
(5/21/2008)
david cook david archuleta syesha mercado
Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 10

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Predicting Cook over Archuleta with search (Place logo in slide
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• 3rd place Syesha Mercado is not competitive in search with David
Cook or David Archuleta
• Syesha’s top states are large and are primarily searching for David
Cook
• Archuleta’s home state, Florida, leans to Cook
Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
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American Idol Season 8 (2009):
Adam Lambert vs. Kris Allen
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Search trends suggest that Adam Lambert will Insert Logo Here
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be the next American Idol
AMERICAN IDOL SEASON 8 SEARCH TRENDS FOR TOP 3 CONTESTANTS
(APRIL – MAY 2009)
100
•Searches for Adam Lambert reached its highest after
90 he performed “Mad World” and received a standing
ovation from Simon
80 •Search volume for Lambert has consistently been
higher than top competitors
70
60 Finalist Kris Allen’s search Danny Gokey exits and sets
volume has never reached up a Lambert vs. Allen
50 Adam Lambert’s levels finale
40
30
20
10
0
4/1/2009 4/8/2009 4/15/2009 4/22/2009 4/29/2009 5/6/2009 5/13/2009
adam lambert kris allen danny gokey
Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 13

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Predicting Lambert over Allen with search (Place logo in slide
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• Adam Lambert has consistently been the leader in search against his
main rival, Kris Allen
• With the exception of Allen’s home state of Arkansas, Lambert
dominates Kris Allen’s and Danny Gokey’s top states
• Although Gokey’s search volume was not competitive with
Lambert’s, regional interest for Gokey suggests his voters will
support Lambert
Source: 360i Analysis Google Insights; May 2009
www.360i.com Proprietary & Confidential 14