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    Final report of proceedings Final report of proceedings Document Transcript

    • NorthernEconomicFuturesSymposium on EconomicDevelopment in the North of England24-26 March 2010Report of proceedingsSPONSORED BY
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESNorthern The focus of the programme has been to better understand the long term underlying structural economic issues affecting the North, including the changed economic environment emerging as the global economy inches its way out of recession, and to provide the basis for identifyingEconomic opportunities and challenges for economic development, and areas of focus for policy and practice in the North. The Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies (CURDS) at NewcastleFutures University is co-ordinating the engagement of the Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC) into this work programme. Working with SERC, The Northern Way hosted a major Symposium to contribute to this analysis in Manchester at Salford’s Lowry Centre on the 24th, 25th and 26th March 2010. Chaired by The Northern Ways Senior Research Advisor, Professor Michael Parkinson, and animated by Professor John Tomaney, Director of CURDS, theThe Northern Way has been working closely with event drew together participants fromthe Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC) academia, national and international policy organisations and Northern Way partners fromon Northern Futures – a programme of research across the North of England.which aims to synthesise a wide ranging evidence This Focus North supplement, prepared by The Northern Way’s Policy and Researchbase on the long term economic future of the Manager, Richard Baker, aims to summarise theNorth of England. outputs of the programme to date, and the discussion at the Symposium. The supplement includes shortNorthern Futures has brought together the work summaries of the 12 papers which wereand the thinking of leading experts from academic, presented at the symposium and articles by 5 of the participants who acted as key discussants atresearch and policy backgrounds alongside The the event.Northern Way’s own research outputs to consider The full papers and other documents mentioned in this supplement are available forthe development issues facing the North of England free download atand territories like it in the coming years. www.thenorthernway.co.uk/northernfutures
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESIntroduction The Northern Futures Papers issues, and their impacts. They aim to considerThis is an exceptionally challenging moment to Through Northern Futures, CURDS, SERC and how these Turning Points will affect sub-consider the future of the Northern economy. the Northern Way have invited some of the national economic development processes in During the past 15 years, development leading thinkers in urban and regional future, and reflect on the implications for thepolicy was largely delivered in a context of development research to work with partners North of England and places like it.economic growth. As we emerge from a deep from the North of England on our response toand difficult period of economic recession, we these issues – by commissioning, publishing The second set of papers address priorityare still getting to grips with the ‘new normal’. and debating two sets of key papers (see box policy issues for the North of England itself. There is general recognition that the 1). The products of this phase of the work are They address key drivers of growth andpost-recessionary economic environment will reported in this supplement. A fuller synthesis productivity - innovation, labour markets,not, and should not, imply simply settling into of this and other work will also be produced connectivity and investment – as well asthe ways of the past, even were this to be early in 2011. ‘contexts and legacies’ - land use and the builtpossible. There is an emerging consensus that environment, place diversity, and governanceour economic future should be more balanced There are two sets of papers: frameworks. They review the current state of– sectorally and spatially – sustainable, and built development of these drivers in the North, andon stronger long term foundations. The ‘Turning Points’ papers provide an reflect on the impact of the Turning Points. But the full shape of the economic overview of the main external trends andchange we are facing nationally, and within theNorth of England, is not yet clear and the longer-term impacts of the recession will only emerge The Turning Points Papers Labour Markets, Trends and Issues:over time. At the same time, there is Challenges facing the North of England –considerable change underway in the approach Turning Points Anne Green, University of Warwickof Government to economic development, and Globalisation and Change: Impact onin the scale and shape of the institutions in place Regional and Local Development Strategies Contexts and legaciesto support it. – Professor Andres Rodriguez-Pose and Sylvia Land Use: The Built and Natural Northern Futures looks broadly at the Tijmstra, London School of Economics; Environment – An Overview of Trends andeconomic environment which will shape the Drivers to 2050 – Professor Mark Tewdwr-future of the North and its constituent The Global Financial Crisis and the prospects Jones, University College London;economies over the long term. The hypothesis for the North – Professor John Tomaney,which has underpinned the work programme is Newcastle University; Diverse Places, Diverse Responses –that, together with the rest of the world, the Professor Mike Coombes, NewcastleNorth is confronting a series of linked ‘Turning Demographic Change and its impact on the University;Points’ Northern regions – Professor Phil Rees and Dr The post-recessionary economic Peter Boden – University of Leeds; The Governance of Economic Developmentenvironment – including the restructuring of in Northern England – Professor Andy Pike,the financial system and cuts in spending which Climate Change, Resource Pressures and Newcastle Universityit is triggering in the UK and elsewhere -is a key the Future for Regional Developmentdriver. But alongside there are others; climate Policies – Professor David Gibbs, University ofchange and resource pressures, demographic Hull; TURNING POINTS WHERE IS THE NORTH NOW? AN AGENDA FOR RESEARCHchange, accelerating technological change andthe development of the knowledge economy, Digital Technologies and the Knowledge Demographic Change and its Impact upon The Northern Way Regionsand geopolitical changes that will reshape Economy; Implications for policy in the TURNING POINTS WHERE IS THE NORTH NOW? Peter Boden and Phil Rees School of Geography, University of Leeds, UKrelationships between continents, countries, North of England – Dr Ranald Richardson, Climate Change, Resourceregions and cities. University of Newcastle Pressures and the Future for Regional Development Policies David Gibbs The Northern Futures programme has Department of Geography, University of Hullaimed to assemble and synthesise a cross- Drivers of growth and productivitycutting evidence base about these changes Innovation in the North of England: Drivers,and about their impacts for the North, and to Progress and Prospects – Dr Beth Perry,offer an opportunity for discussion and University of Salford;reflection on the position of the North in Economic Strategy, Investment and SPONSORED BYresponding to them. In so doing it seeks to drawfrom the various strands of academic thought Infrastructure – Andrew Lewis, Director,which are guiding researchers into these issues. The Northern Way; SPONSORED BY Connectivity and the North of England – Professor Alan Harding, University of Manchester; www.thenorthernway.co.uk/northernfutures
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESSession1Turning Points –Globalisation and theimpact of the globalfinancial crisisGlobalisation and Change: Impact on across the world, this was a recognisable trend, and this increased to 30% by 2007.Regional and Local Development and that the response to globalisation had However, despite this concentration, theProfessor Andres Rodriguez-Pose and Sylvia included significant decentralisation from the impact of the recession hit the North andTijmstra, London School of Economics national scale. Only 2 out of the 42 countries Midlands because of the dependency of the rest studied were not pursuing decentralisation and of the economy on this key sector forThrough a review of evidence from across the the UK – one of the most centralised states in his investment and for credit . Recovery is slow,world, Andres Rodriguez Pose and Sylvia sample - was experiencing higher levels of despite the repairing of the financial servicesTijmstra present evidence about the nature of inequality than elsewhere. sector, supported by Government intervention,economic globalisation and its impact at the The paper describes how new territorial and the prognosis for the regions and cities,sub-national level. structures are emerging in different places, such as much of the North, very dependent on The paper traces the growth of enabling responses to be effectively calibrated public sector activity is challenging. The paperinternational trade in goods and services and to local and regional circumstances and offers reflects on evidence generated by the Northernhighlights increasingly globalised trends in practical examples of these developments. Way Private Investment Commission on theinvestment decision making. Business impact on the range of investment mechanismsorganisations are sourcing resources and The Global financial Crisis and the which had powered the Northern economy.productive capacity across the world, with prospects for the North The paper suggests that futurelocation decisions driven by judgements about Professor John Tomaney, Newcastle development in the North will be driven by athe inherent capacities of places in terms of University different agenda built on ‘the emergence of atheir natural assets and skills, and their capacity more diversified economy. Whilst the financialto respond to support the developmental John Tomaney traces the development of the services sector will remain central to the Britishrequirements of the business. global financial crisis and its particular impact on economy, it needs to be reformed and This creates opportunities to secure the UK. refocused and the agenda for the North ofinvestment into local and regional assets, but also He recounts how the roots of the crisis England would be built on a distinctive approachcreates risks and threats from rounds of which occurred between 2007 and 2009 were to its development, seeking out and exploitingrationalisation and competition on a worldwide in the exposure of the international banking key assets, within the context of change in thescale. Competitive pressures have accelerated system to risky lending practices within the national economy. The North should play a keyover time and reduced transport costs mean that United States. However, he traces a longer role in a move away from a reliance on financialplaces are finding investment more ‘slippery’. history to the crisis, locating the particular and business services to a more diversified A key impact of these globalisation incidence within a wider set of developments, position including high value manufacturingtrends for territories like the North has been an including both the extension of the world and a distinctive response to climate changeincreasing trend to economic disparities. Places trading system to Russia, China and India and and this response should be conceived andwith stronger knowledge bases, assets and the capital flows which were a key feature of delivered within the context of a globalisedcapacities have benefited from being at the these developments, and a longer history of economic model.higher end of the value-chain, providing a turbulence within the financial services sectormagnet for higher levels of growth and dating back to the 1980s.investment. Low skill, low asset regions have The paper argues that the UK had abeen challenged by globalisation and some particular, and unique experience of the crisis,have experienced decline, divestment and because of the structure and spatial distributionpopulation outflow. The paper makes a key of the economy. An economy with a highobservation about the positive correlation dependence on financial services as its keybetween urbanisation and wealth, with cities growth sector – a ‘monocrop’ – and with awhich have been able to grow and improve substantial focusing of this sector aroundproductivity enjoying better economic London, with one or two secondary centresprospects. connected to it. As this key sector faced the In this increasingly complex challenges create by the crisis, the rest of theenvironment, the paper argues that to be economy experienced a knock on impact witheffective, economic policy making needs to be long term development implications across theresponsive to differentiated sub-national UK, resulting in wider industrial change and adevelopment opportunities. Regional and local scarcity of investment.scales are more flexible, and more able to root Prior to the crisis, the UK economy had,‘economic activity in the local social and on aggregate, boomed. Growth was, however,economic fabric’, than national strategy-making concentrated around London and the Southcan facilitate. They can assess and respond to East because of the economic geography of theinvestment opportunities, and can build local financial services sector. Between 1980 andindigenous capacity 1997, London gained a 22% cumulative growth The paper presents evidence that, advantage over the North East and North West,
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESSession1 has also decreased the possibility of capturing mobile international investment capital for sub- On the positive side, national support for development agencies and broader co-Turning Points – national economic development purposes. As Tomaney suggested, we have begun ordinating bodies such as The Northern Way has provided regions with investment resources asGlobalisation and the to recognise that a fuller understanding of regional potential and policy options needs to well as analytical capacity. These resources and capacity increase the possibility that sub-impact of the global take account of the overall financialisation of the global economy (Pike and Pollard, 2009 , the national policy makers will focus on local strategic assets in building their economic base.financial crisis impacts of which have been particularly prominent in the UK and US, with critical For strong, rich, sub-national economies, such as Lombardy and Catalonia, devolutionResponse implications for investment and disinvestment in former manufacturing regions (Epstein, 2004; potentially enhances the ability to move strategically in a highly competitive global Milberg and Winkler 2010). economy. Financialisation affected the ability of For lagging regions, particularly those UK and US manufacturing regions to attract or left out of the financial investment boom of theThe Context for Economic Development build on foreign direct investment. Reliance on 2000s, devolution can be a more problematicPotential in the North tax strategies to attract capital investment, for proposition. Resource poverty frequentlyProfessor Susan Christopherson, Cornell example, obscured the degree to which capital means a lack of capacity to devise bottom upUniversity investment was a response to real input costs, policy measures, creating further disadvantage including labor costs. Analysts of the forces in a policy regime that relies primarily on bottomThe current economic crisis provides us with an behind the “decentering” of production up responses to global trends. Bottom upunusual opportunity to take a fresh look at how networks in response to financial options approaches also frequently rely on cost-basedsuccess, failure, and long-term resilience in sub- presented in the period leading up to the global competition with other places rather thannational economies have been imagined, and to financial crisis have, in fact, noted the strategies to identify and build on comparativeraise questions about how regional policy increasingly problematic and complex advantages.makers should think about “globalisation”. As connections between place and profit. There is a key question about theJohn Tomaney notes, the debate about the According to Desai (2009:1289) for rhetoric and reality of devolution. A key issue isimpact of the global financial crisis – and example the scope to act. While responsibility andpotential responses to it – needs to be informed “In the increasingly non-transparent tax- accountability for economic development andby an understanding of the particular character efficient production networks of global social welfare are easily shifted to the sub-of the UK financial system and its relationship corporations, it can be quite challenging to national scale, it has to date been only in thewith the regional and local economies. In clarify the extent to which locations benefit from unusual case (such as Lombardy in Italy) thatimportant ways, the global economic crisis has the activities they carry out”. the region has also been able to exercise controlilluminated the limitations of the past formulas Certainly the emergence of more over key resources, such as higher educationwe were given for regional success. The papers autonomous sub-national economies has institutions or labor law, to give effect to thisand discussion in this session contributed to our expanded the alternatives available to responsibility. Even given the critical role ofevolving understanding of the relationship of enterprises looking for unconventional sources energy in regional economies, national policiesthe local and the regional to the global economy. of profit in a complex global economy (Andres- prevent the development of independentBoth papers and discussion raised issues in two Pose and Tijmstra, 2010). municipal energy structures. Thus, in the waysarenas critical to the economic future of the What this suggests is that global that really count, capacity to innovate in theNorth: competition for inward investment is less policy arena can be actually quite limited. explicable as a consequence of input cost As Jose-Enrique Garcilazo suggested in1) What does the new phase of globalisation, comparisons (including labor cost) or skill his commentary, all regions have the potentialsignificantly shaped by multi-national premia. And, what on the surface may look like to develop strategies to respond to theenterprises and financial strategies, mean for “a good deal” in economic development terms, economic challenges that they face. Thatformer manufacturing regions? may turn out to have negative long-term potential will not emerge, however, from a consequences for national or sub-national reactive response to the conditions presented2) What are pluses and minuses of devolution as economic development. Calculated location to the region but from the ability to control anda strategy to enable localities and regions to decisions by multi-national enterprises may, in use strategic resources. Although we haverespond more effectively to the global fact, undercut the opportunities for lagging examples of this kind of strategic control andeconomy? places to benefit from trade in such a way that action, they are rare because they require economic development can occur. In some ceding power over critical resources, which areWhat does the new phase of globalisation central and eastern European countries, for perceived as national as well as regional assets.mean for sub-national economies? example, off-shoring by multi-nationalThe papers and symposium presentations enterprises looking for sources of skilled laborreinforced our understanding of globalisation as (in computer programming, for example) hasevolving and changing, shaped by powerful reduced the possibilities for entrepreneurshipactors, regulatory mechanisms, and the and the development of agglomerationstrategies of multi-national enterprises. economies based on a distinctive set of regional Rooted in expanded markets and closer skills.communication, transportation and cultural Given this decentering of both supplyconnections, globalisation has constructed a chains and financial assets, how do we thinkmore differentiated investment environment. about devolution, which has been presented as As a result of changes in regulatory a mechanism to empower localities and regionspolicy and heightened competition for inward to act strategically to improve their economicinvestment and intellectual property, this fortunes in a global economy.environment has significantly altered since the1990s, Arguably the recent emphasis on What are the positives and negative effects ofinvestment returns (from speculative real estate devolution?ventures, for example) has contributed to the Devolution has both positive and negativeglobal “meltdown” we are now experiencing. It consequences for cities, regions and nations.
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESSession 2Turning Points –Demographic change,climate change andtechnological changeDemographic Change and its impact on contribute economically and socially. national scale to successfully address thethe Northern regions For sub-national policy makers these mitigation of climate effects and to adapt theProfessor Philip Rees and Dr Peter Boden, changes imply a number of areas for focus: economy in response to both low carbonUniversity of Leeds imperatives and changing risks. He also • enhancing economic participation rates promotes a co-ordinated move to thePhilip Rees and Peter Boden highlight how the amongst over 50 and migrant populations to development of a low carbon economic future.impact of key demographic developments, maintain capacity in the labour market Ensuring policy co-ordination, andcommon across the world, are impacting upon • ensuring that key infrastructure such as mainstreaming climate change across the widerthe North of England. housing and transport reflect changing policy agenda will be required, but will be Their review focuses on three key global demands challenging given the level of achievements todemographic phenomena: • work to secure long term improvements in date. health to maintain the potential for economic He also highlights a growing strand of• population growth, as a result of enhanced activity and to minimise public sector costs thought which suggests that that these longevity and higher birth rates approaches would not be sufficient to get to• population ageing, as a result of enhanced Climate Change, Resource Pressures and grips with climate change. Some commentators longevity and declining fertility and the Future for Regional Development are arguing that the challenge of climate• migration as people moved across continental, Policies change requires a reworking not only of the national and sub-national borders Professor David Gibbs, University of Hull approach to development, but also to the objectives and goals.They show how these trends interact David Gibbs identifies climate change as thedifferentially in the North, compared with other most important challenge facing sub-national Digital Technologies and the Knowledgeparts of the UK, and how different parts of the development in the 21st century. He suggests Economy; Implications for policy in theNorth are experiencing the trends differentially. that it will require a sustained response North of England On aggregate, there is some limited throughout the whole century to reduce Dr Ranald Richardson and Dr Emmanouilnatural population growth in the North. climate change pressures and to adapt the Tranos, University of NewcastleHowever, this is focused spatially around urban economy to a low carbon model.centres as a result of higher birth rates of He highlights that even were these Ranald Richardson and Manolis Tranos exploreminority communities. International migration changes to be successfully introduced, then how the development of a knowledge basedgrowth is buttressing the Northern population, there are already climactic changes in the economy – with economic value increasinglybut this largely serves to compensate internal pipeline as a consequence of current warming, generated by exchanges of knowledge andmigration loss from the North within the UK, as and that these will be demanding in terms of ideas, rather than tangible goods – has affectedpeople move to London and other parts of the risks from weather related events such as thinking about economic development. He citescountry. The most significant trend for the North flooding and wider climate change impacts the increasing consensus that successful growthis that of ageing as life expectancy increases. such as changing natural cycles. There is a need strategies would be focused on these sectors.This is particularly the case in the rural and to pro-actively intervene to defend the He highlights how the focus of sub-suburban parts of the North. economy, and adapt places and processes. national strategies to promote the knowledge The potential for these trends to have In his paper, he traces the development economy have tended to be on aspects ofeconomic impacts can be seen in a number of of research and policy discussion though the human, organisational and social capital ratherareas of policy concern. late 20th century and more recent history. He than the infrastructure to enable successful In terms of economic activity on the highlights how recent global discussions have adaptation to the knowledge economy. Theresupply side of the economy, this implies an set challenging targets for the reduction of was, until recently, a clear assumption thatageing labour force, with the main opportunity carbon emissions which would be a significant private investment would drive thefor growth in economic participation driver to change. development of network technologies.increasingly focused on older, and incoming Whilst international and national targets However, he highlights how moremigrant, population groups. are challenging, they also have the potential to recent discussion has recognised the On the demand side of the economy drive new opportunities in key areas such as importance of digital technologies as thethere will be an increasing concentration of energy generation, and there are key questions dominant General Purpose Technology (GPT) inwealth and income in the older population, about the future of supply in areas such as food the knowledge economy, where a GPT issuggesting opportunities for innovation in and water which will represent both understood to be “a pervasive technology withbusiness sectors aiming to service older opportunities and challenges for the North numerous applications, whose performanceconsumers. But there are also risks, as the which has assets in both these areas. More and price continues to improve over time anddemands on public services and infrastructure widely, these targets imply changes to policy which provides an underpinning platform for awill be increasingly focused on the older age across the agenda from transport, to the design proliferation of other technologies andgroups. For the authors a key focus for policy will of business processes and the approach to applications”.be work to ensure people remain healthy, housing and place development Analysts suggest that a small number oftherefore maximising their capacity to He raises challenges for the sub- GPTs account for a large and increasing share of
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURES Session 2 Turning Points – Demographic change, climate change and technological change Responsean economy’s growth potential and that, in this Demographic Change, Climate Change and North mobilises its resources to meet thecontext, a cutting edge digital infrastructure Digital Technology challenges in each domain.represents a pre-condition to successful John Goddard, Emeritus Professor of Regional In thinking about the future, we need toeconomic development. Development Studies, CURDS, Newcastle be able to consider the relationship between The authors propose that information University short run forecasts, and longer term scenarios,and communications technologies (ICT) have and we need the capacity to think across issuesachieved this position and that this is now a Demographic change, climate change and the to recognise the inter-relationships betweencrucial infrastructure for the knowledge evolution of the knowledge economy will be key issues and trends.economy at all levels, under-pinning high value factors influencing the development of the For example, Rees and Bodens work oninnovation, and providing a basic infrastructure North. demographic change highlights thefor even some of the lowest value tasks. For the Collectively they raise at least four uncertainties inherent in population forecasting.North, which aims to be increasingly generic and inter-related challenges for policy This is especially the case with the migrationcompetitive in the knowledge economy, there is and research. first, how we think about the component, but is also so with fertility anda need to sustain a focus on both the digital future; second the role of governance in shaping mortality. But we need to factor these trends intoinfrastructure and the skills and organisational the future; third how different parts of the North more wide-ranging scenarios given the inter-forms which can make best use of it. Beyond its are affected by each factor and finally how the related nature of the Turning Points. Foreconomic applications, the author also highlightthe increasing social importance of ICT in termsof, for example, public service provision andaccess to information and support. They highlight a range of practicalexamples, from the UK and internationally, ofstrategies for securing this infrastructure withinsub-national territories ranging from public-private partnerships, through to community,shared and linked networks. To maximise the economic benefits to aplace, key challenges are to promote theavailable capacity to potential users andinvestors, to ensure institutional integrationaround knowledge economy infrastructure, toensure that expertise is linked across space andto ensure that key networks within thefunctional economy are established – betweenand across sectors – with shared availability andcommon access.
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESSession 2 with equality. The work of departments like Work and Pensions and Health need to be more advantage of different places – for example supporting upland communities providing newTurning Points – strongly linked to sub-national governance structures to enhance co-ordination around and renewable energy resources? How can river catchment areas be managed across theDemographic change, these issues. The same is true of those dealing with climate change and issues like energy, boundaries of the North to support the supply of water to a thirsty South?climate change and flooding and food security. And, at the sub- Where population growth can occur is in national level, where local authorities are left to part a matter of national planning policy relatingtechnological change try and draw these things together and cope to the release of land for housing in areas of with the consequences of population and demand, most notably in the greater South East.Response climate change, the capacity to act can vary Yet this is the area which is under most severe considerably between places. threat from climate change. In contrast the This is particularly the case given the North has a wide range of assets that could be issue of sub regional variations in the North. For mobilised to support more sustainable patterns example the North exhibits, of development provided the infrastructure is inexample, linking the context of migration to that place. The mobilisation of this potential couldof climate change there is the possibility of • The concentration of migrant population in depend not only on local entrepreneurialenvironmentally driven migration from southern certain cities and the ageing population in responses but on the success of the regulatoryEurope and from countries like Bangladesh to rural areas. environment. It will also require the mobilisationthe UK as a result of weather events or sea-level • Local resource opportunities in terms of new of intellectual and developmental resources torise. Unless these risks are successfully and renewable energy. shape the future agenda. Research and co-managed, given the pressures on land and • The urban/rural divide in digital infrastructure. ordination have key roles in thinking about andservices in the South East of England, the North supporting public and political choices aboutcould become a destination for international These raise important questions about the link the future of the North.migrants. between the demographic and environmental There is an important need to follow As regards fertility, birth rates are higher and digital drivers of change and the spatial through this evidence base, with activities whichin migrant populations. In relation to mortality structure of the North’s settlement system. can facilitate reflection on possible futurethe effects of obesity and medical technology What are the assets of places in relation to these scenarios for the North. The Foresight Land Useimprovements may counteract each other. threats and opportunities? Futures scenarios offer a starting point for workThese possibilities suggest that as we go beyond To varying degrees, Northern of this nature, and it is important that such an2030 forecasting becomes more unreliable not institutions have been working to address the endeavour builds on the firm academicleast because of uncertainty around the links between place, economic and evidence base provided through the Northernpossible geo-political, social, economic and environmental change. These issues were Futures papers. But it should also mobilise linksenvironmental influences that might bear down featuring in the emerging Integrated Regional the Northern Way has established at anon demographic change. Strategies and continue to be a focus for City institutional level with Northern universities, Climate change also enters into the Regions. In the current policy context, is there a with Government and with Northern partners,scenarios realm where John Beddington, the challenge emerging to join up place based including but not exclusively with the N8Government’s Chief Scientist has talked of a strategies across the North? To what extent are consortium to ensure that the full knowledge“perfect storm” of global population growth, there complementarities between places within base of the North’s academic and researchenergy and food shortages mixed in with global the North in the light of these challenges? How communities is more formally plugged into thewarming. The national Foresight report on the can technology support the comparative development of the North.Future of Land Use sets out alternative scenariosabout how land might be used in the UK in thelight of alternative social, political and regulatoryregimes which might apply globally, nationallyand regionally.So, key questions are:• What are the possible alternative scenarios for the North in terms of population change and climate change?• What are the alternative scenarios for the North in terms of the role of broad brand infrastructure?• What new policy parameters might emerge after 2030 in terms of, for example, a greater emphasis on a fairer and cleaner economy, well being and health?The future of the North in the context ofdemography, adaptation to climate change andpresence in the digital economy will dependcritically on how the territorial dimension isembedded into each of these domains. Many of the government departmentsconcerned with key stages in the demographiccycle adopt policies which are territorially blindwith delivery handed to single purpose agencieswith a narrowly defined remit. Obvious examplesare those dealing with the national border and
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESSession 3Drivers of growthand productivityInnovation in the North of England: She highlights how the innovation assets on They identified how key constraints had heldDrivers, Progress and Prospects which the North is now focused articulate back the Northern economy in key areasDr Beth Perry, University of Salford strongly to the changing global economic including: environment reflected in the Turning PointsBeth Perry reviews evidence about the role of papers, offering opportunities for the North in • an under-supply of housinginnovation as a driver of productivity and areas such as technological change with the • an imbalance of investment into regenerationregional growth in the North of England. focus on communications technologies, and and other infrastructure projects and She explores the dynamics which climate change with the focus on low carbon • an apparent inability of SMEs in the North toinfluenced its prominence in Northern energy generation. secure long term finance for growth.economic development priorities, starting withthe Government decision to relocate the Economic Strategy, Investment and Lewis highlights that the main focus of theDiamond Synchrotron from Daresbury in the Infrastructure Commission in seeking solutions to theseNorth West to the South East at the turn of the Andrew Lewis, Director, The Northern Way constraints was on the fundamentals whichcentury. This set back prompted an enhanced would make a difference to these problems overregional focus on science and innovation and Andrew Lewis describes how the economic and the long term. However, he also highlights theirthe creation of the North West Regional Science policy context for investment in the North of significant concern about the nature andCouncil, over time creating a wider agenda England has experienced significant change strength of recovery in the North.around the knowledge economy, and the over the last 5 years. The impact of the recession The Commission identified a long termrecognition of the economic potential of has affected immediate prospects. It has also equity-gap between the Greater South East andagglomeration economies and economic prompted a fundamental rethink of the terms the rest of the UK with the 32% of the UKspillovers. on which investment is likely to be secured in business base based in the South East securing In the North, the three regions have the future as the economy recovers. 69% of the venture capital investment. Ittaken different innovation journeys. Support for Before the recession the role of the assessed the evidence about the causes of thiscollaboration between universities and business public sector in delivering enhanced relative imbalance and developed a suite of potentialwas the starting point for work in Yorkshire. In economic performance in the North had been responses. It agreed with the Rowlands Reviewthe North West, parallel science and innovation under scrutiny, and this had been crystallised that there needed to be action taken toinitiatives have been increasingly integrated into into a substantial recasting of the approach to promote and manage private investmentregional development strategies. Within the regional economic development policy. opportunities into the regions outside theNorth East there has been a central role for Recent reforms brought forward by the Greater South East and to move away frominnovation as the focus for its economic Labour Government focused on building a more Government approaches which focus resourcestransition. These differences in approach coherent and accountable system of economic into areas where the economy was alreadyreflected different economic starting points, policy co-ordination between national, regional strong.varying dynamics and the centrality of existing and local scales, alongside an attempt to break He reports how the Commission alsoassets and new opportunities. down policy silos between different instruments highlighted the need to address structural A key moment for the North was the of economic policy. The direction of policy was problems in areas like housing and regenerationintervention of the OECD in 2008, with their towards simplification of structures and which have been hidden by cyclical patterns interritorial innovation review which was strategies, accompanied by an enhanced and the market to address the overall attractivenessfacilitated and informed by inputs from the positive role for local government. The reforms of the North for business and investment. ThisNorthern Way, the three Regional Development aimed to achieve a clear focus on the added requires a coherent strategy and targeted localAgencies and a range of local, business and value of the role of the public sector in actions to maximise the potential of places,academic partners, engaged as part of an economic development, providing an improved create a supportive local business environmentincreasingly wide-ranging innovation environment for private sector involvement and and to develop new models of public-privateconstituency. investment into key priority projects and partnership to encourage investment and to The OECD set out a comprehensive programmes. stimulate investment into projects which canassessment of the innovation performance of He argues that, for the North of England, connect communities to economicthe North of England and provided a strong changes of this nature are important because of opportunities.rationale for collaborative work to: the evidence which had been generated about the barriers to greater flows of private Connectivity and the North of England• enhance the innovation infrastructure across investment into the Northern economy. Professor Alan Harding and Dr. James Rees, the North The Private Investment Commission, University of Manchester• broaden the understanding and agenda which brought together 7 private sector leaders around innovation, to include broadening the from different backgrounds, supported by The Alan Harding and James Rees highlight how interaction between innovation sites and local Northern Way, examined a range of constraints connectivity and accessibility have become economies and to private investment in the North – looking at increasingly crucial enablers of economic• enable innovation capacity, through the investment into businesses, innovation, dynamism in a world dominated by urban development of evidence, profile and focus. economic regeneration projects and housing. economic development and agglomeration.
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESSession 3Drivers of growthand productivity Access to sea and air transport, or being For the former, the diversification of highlights how the position across the north inpositioned at a strategic point in a land-based complementary economic sectors around the terms of quality and quantity is differentiatedtransport system, have historically been key ports to take advantage of their position as and how the difference in comparison withassets in supporting development. In an open gateways makes sense. For the latter, work other parts of the UK continues to change. Overeconomy, they continue to be crucial towards a package of improvements around the decade to 2007 there was increasing jobcontributors to economic development skills and quality of life, alongside better growth overall, but with a pattern of growth atprospects. connectivity is required to secure positive both ends of the quality spectrum – in high Good transport connectivity within local outcomes. Without this improvement in the value-added, high wage jobs and low value-economic areas enables economic growth and local economic profile, stronger connectivity added, low wage jobs. Regional differences inthe management of the congestion which could lead to the exacerbation of economic job quality were driven by occupationalaccompanies it. And fast and efficient systems of disparities. Work by SERC for The Northern Way structure within sectors rather than differencestransport between economic centres enable has shown how it is possible that such in sectoral structure, and that for the North thestronger economic interactions and dynamism. connectivity can trigger positive economic role of the public sector is traditionally highThe importance of these physical connections development through restructuring although compared with other parts of the UK.seems to be undiminished in a knowledge the evidence is not conclusive in this regard She reviews evidence in other relevanteconomy, despite the increasing availability of In the context of the response to the areas such as employment conditions, jobmodern information technologies. The current recession with the challenge of securing quality and occupational welfare, and arguesimportance of collaboration and networking capital investment, there is an opportunity for that in a time of constraint, occupational welfarebetween people and firms within knowledge further work to align work to mobilise private will be increasingly important both the quality ofeconomies means that these two forms of sector investment to support the delivery of individual working lives and as a basis forcommunication are complementary. these key priority projects. There is also an competition in the labour market. Harding highlights the extensive opportunity to use the prioritisation She discusses the increasing emphasisevidence base which had been developed methodologies to get a stronger focus on low on skills in fostering competitiveness andabout Northern transport priorities as a result of carbon issues in the context of the increasingly economic performance, noting their impact onwork developed by, or supported through the important climate change policy driver. both productivity and inclusion. The skillsNorthern Way, and the contribution it made to present in a local or regional economy arewider national work taken forward through the Labour Markets, Trends and Issues: crucial drivers to its performance and changes inEddington Review. Challenges facing the North of England skills governance aim to enable a stronger He suggests that this work has been Anne Green, University of Warwick integration between economic andpivotal in developing a strong understanding of employment policy implementation.the relationship between economic benefits Anne Green reviews the key trends and issues In the final section of her paper sheand connectivity, and applying this to the facing the labour market in the North of highlights a range of facts about the labourspecific circumstances of the North of England. England. markets in the North highlighting the levels ofIt has encouraged a rigorous analysis of the She highlights the increasing centrality economic activity and inactivity, the sectoralconnections between transport and processes of work to policy, both as a driver of economic and occupational structures of employmentof agglomeration and has enabled a more clear development but also as a key part of the and the value of outputs and productivity atfocus on the potential of key investments to welfare reform agenda, with routes into work Northern, regional and at city regional scales..unlock economic growth in the North. The list of being positioned as the fast and effective route Finally she identifies a range ofpriority investments which this work had out of poverty. These two concerns continue to opportunities and challenges, linked to the longidentified, tested against productivity gains, has provide the rationale for a range of policy term trends explored in the Turning Pointsbeen increasingly recognised for its potential to initiatives to promote employment, from papers:not only improve the economic performance of incentives such as the national minimum wage,the North, but also to add value to the wider UK to support through New Deal programmes and • The impact of budgetary constraint on jobs,economy. with an increasing focus on mandatory particularly those in the public sector and There is an emerging consensus view participation in job support programmes. those dependent on itthat an increase in economic density in the She describes how the main • The impact of demographic change with theNorth will lead to positive productivity changes, programmes have focused on individual impact of ageing leading to a focus onvia agglomeration effects – and that this is employees and job seekers, but also identifies extending working lives and on short termparticularly the case in those local and regional how there have been more place oriented measures to promote immigrationeconomies centres with a strong service sector programmes operating at regional, local and • The need to ensure that skills are updated tofocus, such as Leeds and Manchester, neighbourhood scales to create conditions for enable the north to address economic themes For those centres with other economic economic and employment growth. like the impact of technology and theprofiles – such as the ports city regions and She reviews key contextual debates offshoring of capacityTowns with lower skills profiles arranged around about employment – touching on the capacity • The speed of economic change and the driverCity Regions the economic priorities with of the Northern employment market to provide this creates for adaptabilityreference to transport are different. jobs, both in quantity and of quality. She
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESSession 3Drivers of growthand productivityResponseDrivers of Economic Development coordination needs to happen at multiple specialised and thus more productive, alsoLewis Dykstra, Deputy Head of the Economic geographical levels. Large scale transport offering benefits in terms of globaland Quantitative Analysis Unit at the infrastructure investments are typically decided competiveness and resilience in the face ofEuropean Commission at the national level, which usually also finances increased national and global competition. As a the largest share of these investments. To result, one can argue that increasing theInnovation, labour markets, public and private ensure the maximum benefit of these connections within the North will allow it to findinvestments and connectivity all have a strong investments, regional and urban economic a more competitive niche in the globalsub-national dimension and this is increasingly development strategies need to anticipate economy. Nevertheless, improved connectionsseen as an aspect that needs to be taken into these increases in accessibility. to London can also contribute higher economicaccount when designing policies and strategies The construction of a new high speed growth if the balance between the cost and theto address economic development. As a result, train link or the improvement of regional public quality of the business environment isthe role of city regions in designing and transport connections can improve the favourable. Therefore, anticipating the highimplementing policies has grown in several economic development of an area. However, for speed rail connection would require anEuropean countries over the past two decades. this to work well a wide range of policies from upgrading of the business environment and In addition, the coordination between planning, to training, to policies improving the continued investments in human capital. Andifferent public policies can enhance the impact business environment need to be coordinated. efficient city-regional approach to planningof these policies, and can ensure that This type of coordination can only happen if the could ensure a sufficient supply of high qualityunintended consequences and risks are city region plays a strong role in the design and locations at a competitive price. This wouldmanaged. For example, whilst there are clear implementation of these policies. The role of the significantly increase the appeal of the North aseconomic benefits from targeted transport city region should not be limited to a competitive location for business investments.investments, as highlighted by new economic incorporating central government decisions Infrastructure investment decisions,geography thinking, improving transport links about key investments. Their knowledge of the however, should consider different scenarios incan also lead to an outflow of people and needs of the firms in their region and key terms of the price of energy and greenhouseeconomic activities, the so-called leaking by bottlenecks can steer decisions to the areas gas emissions. As transport infrastructure has alinking. Policy coordination is key to ensure that with the highest return. life span of multiple decades, it is quite possibletransport investment leads to more economic that fossil fuels and/or greenhouse gasgrowth and not less. For this coordination to Labour Market emissions will become considerably morework, however, a strong involvement, if not Policies addressing labour market issues have expensive during that period. This could lead toleadership, of the city region or other functional also moved towards a more participatory a relative reduction in overall travel and a shiftregions is required. approach including employers, the public and between short haul flights and high speed rail the voluntary sector. This should allow for a and between cars and public transport. CostInnovation better skills matching as compared to simple benefit analysis based on a single pricingThe focus of innovation policy has shifted from a investments in the stock of human capital. Such scenario cannot capture the risks of far highernarrow focus on technology to a broader an approach can promote the shift to a future fuel prices.concept that includes non-technological and knowledge economy based on high valuenon-R&D based innovation, such as service added activities and high skill jobs. The call forinnovation, better management, organisation more flexibility and a more individualisedand logistics. This shift has been accompanied approach has also led to a greaterby two other trends: an increasing use of regionalisation and decentralisation with morepartnerships and more decentralisation. discretion at lower levels of geography.Partnerships between the public and private The main arguments in favour of thissectors and researcher organisations promote trend are (1) the different problems faced byan innovative milieu, where cooperation is regions may require different solutions, (2) aeasier and cross fertilisation happens faster. better knowledge of the local needs andThese partnerships are, however, difficult to opportunities can help to target policies and (3)establish at the national level. Therefore, many a decentralised approach provides morecountries have developed innovation strategies opportunities for local buy-in as compared to athat take into account the innovation strength top down strategy. Nevertheless, to be efficient,and weaknesses of a region. The triple helix such an approach should ensure a coherent,approach used in Sweden and Finland are territory-wide strategy with a single programmeexcellent examples of this shift towards a more of employer engagement.partnership-based and decentralised approach. ConnectivityInvestment Increasing critical economic mass by investingCo-ordination of different public and private in better transport connections can enable ainvestments can ensure a higher return. This sub-national economy to become more
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESSession 4 questions about adaptation to climate change, and increasing pressure to live more sustainably Diverse Places, Diverse Responses Professor Mike Coombes, Newcastle UniversityContexts and affecting the demands on land He focuses on a range of issues which In his paper, Mike Coombes reflects on thelegacies feature in discussions about the sustainability of existing approaches to land use. Whilst many of diversity of the places within the economic geography of the North of England, and these reflect historical and perceptual patterns, highlights that for each place its developmental they are important in shaping consideration of history is a powerful factor in its response to land use issues. Given that land is such a crucial change. This ‘path dependency’ implies that the asset, understanding and addressing these issues potential for change will be realised over the long will be important challenges. term, requiring a long term perspective in planning and economic development. • There appears to be a significant over- He also highlights how this spatial estimation of the level of development in the UK diversity challenges generalised approaches to currently. He cited evidence that 20% of the policy. Differences in scale, character and socio-Land Use: The Built and Natural population believe that over 75% of the land is economic profile require differentiatedEnvironment – An Overview of Trends and developed, whereas the true figure is closer to approaches to intervention, and these are rarelyDrivers to 2050 10% constrained within localised or administrativeProfessor Mark Tewdwr-Jones, University • The balance of land use has remained largely the areas meaning that the impact of externalitiesCollege London same over the last 50 years – with agriculture and spillovers will be crucial drivers of change continuing to account for 70% of the land within localities. In the context of economicMark Tewdwr-Jones provides an analysis of trends compared with 12% for woodland and 10% for development, he suggests that sub-regionaland drivers of change as they effect land use in urban, although he pointed out that the economic areas are the scale of most interest asbuilt and natural environments, drawing from intensity had accelerated, and that there were they reflect the flows and connections within theevidence developed by the Government Office some grounds for contesting of the statistics. majority of business relationships and within thefor Science Foresight Land Use Futures Project • That because of the combination of labour market.which had worked between 2008 and 2010 and development and climate change impacts there Commentators have sought to developreported in March 2010. are risk management issues to address. An typologies which can make some sense of the He highlights the crucial link between increasing proportion of residential and business generic interventions which can provoke growthland use decisions and the shape and scope of locations are vulnerable to events like flooding, and development. Whilst this is difficult in such aeconomic activity, and how the development of whilst at the same time these risks will affect diverse geography some have been proposed.land influences the well-bring of individuals, as it other functions which require land including From an economic point of view, the dominanceshapes the living environment. water and food supply, and energy security of regional centres such as Manchester, Leeds He identifies three key drivers of land use • That the balance of pressure and availability is and Newcastle is crucial in driving growth in bothchange to be: geographically differentiated with significant the core of the functional economy, and those pressures in the South East and opportunities in places which surround it who can benefit directly• Population levels – population growth is the North and Midlands for both business and and indirectly from the development of the core. anticipated to reach 71.1 million by 2031 residential development. But there are also other characterisations implying additional demand for land and • That there are opportunities for more creative available, including more constrained cities who resources land use through stronger governance, more are not growing as quickly as their peers, and who• The changing economic environment, with creative thought about mutli-functionality of play a different role in the wider economy. levels of growth and affluence likely to drive development (for example by investing in And then there are free-standing places changes in consumption, including for housing sustainable infrastructure) and proper valuing of such as York, Chester and Darlington where they and leisure the contribution of eco-system functions to the maintain differentially successful economies, with• Changing environmental conditions – with big economy the key factor influencing their successful development being the level of development of inherent skills and capabilities, which provide capacity to both attract investment and develop endogenously. For Coombes, successful responses to external changes such as the Turning Points identified within this programme of research require a response which recognises these divergent factors and varied opportunities for growth. Change is most likely to be secured by long term development processes which build on assets and capacities rather than the transformation through initiatives like the New Towns policy which was a feature of policy in the past. And the outcomes are likely to be equally divergent to the starting point. The Governance of Economic Development in Northern England Professor Andy Pike, Newcastle University Andy Pike describes the evolution of debate and research about the structure of governance required to most successfully support economic development in territories like the North of England.
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURES He highlights a shift in focus for sub-national economic development policy across Session 4 It would recognise for example that we are in the Asian century, and so investment therethe developed economies. Policy is moving awayfrom approaches based on subsidy and income Contexts and now, however difficult or slow burn, is going to pay the greatest dividends, not least through firstredistribution, towards a mix of policies whichpromote competitiveness and the identification legacies mover advantages. The baton is passing before our very eyes: can we condition our supply (mostand fostering of growth potential. This is Response importantly of knowledge) to meet theirsupported by analysis from across the OECD that demand by the national polity enabling placesthere are opportunities for growth and like Manchester to have its own trade strategy?development in places with different economic Strong, stable governance prioritises,characteristics which can be identified and reaps opportunity and deals with challenges – inexploited. that order. There remains the much debated To seek to secure these opportunities, question of what level for such governance, andacross the member states of the OECD there is an Mike Coombes’ classification is an importantincreasing dynamic to decentralise structures contribution to that debate, highlighting howand policies, enabling the integration of decision It’s the Governance, stupid each place is different and must probably facemaking and co-ordination of public policy at local Baron Frankal and Chris Pope, challenges in different ways, often co-operatingand regional scales. He suggests that, in the Manchester’s Commission for the New with other places as required by economiccontext of the issues raised in the Turning Points – Economy challenges.such as the response to globalisation of the A one size does not fit all philosophyeconomy, the recession and climate change – Compelling evidence exists of the correlation does not, though, sit easily with tidy-minded civilthis is a policy direction which is likely to continue. between good governance and economic servants who seek comprehensive solutions. Common areas for policy focus link to growth and development, and this was the How could it be that a function might be done atchallenges such as infrastructure, skills and proposition at the centre of this “Turning Point” regional level in one place, at city regional level ininnovation support. Successful interventions aim session, and in particular the paper from the another and that another still might not haveto stimulate increasing focus on the assets and Spatial Economics Research Centre’s John any capacity at all, requiring a Whitehall solutioneconomic potential of an area, and to ensure that Tomaney and Andy Pike . They provided good filleted of the country’s strongest parts?barriers to growth, such as accessibility to markets support for growth and prosperity being at the Patchworks and postcode lottery syndromeare addressed. And because of the different heart of good governance, but noted that the create political dread, but surely a world wherestructures of governance within states across the creation of such “lasting, stable and effective elsewhere the fittest places sprint faster and areOECD – ranging from very centralised countries mechanisms” has proved elusive. Indeed. systematically encouraged to do so for thesuch as the UK to decentralised and federal The discussion that followed the paper’s greater good, it is an inevitability that the prioritymodels like Germany – different structures of presentation used the Commission for the New for policy should be empowering places thatmulti-level governance have been developed to Economy as an innovative example of just such a have capacity, ambition and structures ofaim to secure successful prioritisation and co- growth orientated structure. Whilst a majority of accountability in place to achieve economicordination. The result is an uneven approach Greater Manchester’s ten Leaders sit on its board, a growth.across the OECD membership with different majority of that board is private sector, including Mark Tewdwr-Jones’s very valuablegovernance models in place. Pike highlights the Chair. This enterprising structure puts long- contribution provides a powerful narrative aboutevidence that one of the common characteristics term sustainable economic growth above all else, the role of land. Again, the appropriateis the importance of democratic accountability in is private sector lead in concept and action, but has governance structure, at the right level, is crucialthe process of defining objectives and goals. the full confidence of its co-terminus Local to having the right policies in place to ensure Against this background, the history of Authorities. It is, perhaps, exactly the kind of model planning policy works towards the economicsub-national economic governance in the UK has that needs to be evaluated in terms of a basis for growth imperative. All too often it is an inhibitor,been patchy with high levels of centralisation and constructing the latest sub-national policy as the planning tail wags the economic dog. In alow levels of local and regional capacity to deliver incarnation - Local Economic Partnerships (LEP’s). world of ever less public subsidy, the ability of aco-ordinated responses of this type. There has LEPs were but a glint in a future-Minister’s place to leverage its assets, foremost of whichnot been a strong and stable position for any eye at the time Pike and Tomaney prepared their will be land, becomes critical.sustained period. paper, but it sets a high bar for these institutions There are six EU Members States smaller There have been identifiable phases of as they emerge. Its starting point is that than Manchester, and so the potential is clear, aspolicy development including the Urban compared to international best practice in local is acceptance of the need to get governanceDevelopment Corporations and Government economic development, the UK has a poor right. For us, this is surely the right level andOffices of the 1980’s Conservative Government, record. Compared to other countries, sub- tightness of unitary economic interest toand devolution to the 3 Nations and national policymaking remains virtually non- pioneer stable and effective economicdecentralisation to the English regions since existent in our incredibly centralised state. This is development mechanisms for a new age, where1997 under Labour, which further evolved to a ingrained in our national consciousness, with a policy innovation and entrepreneurship andfocus on City Regions and Integrated Regional majority of talent flowing to London and the radical public sector reform are desperatelystrategies in the second half of the 2000’s. The productivity gap between London and the South needed, not least to balance the books andpolicies of the Coalition Government signal a East and the rest of the UK widening with time ensure effective delivery continues andmove away from regions and to more local scales, through various generations of government accelerates. Tomaney and Pike contend thatalthough the detail of this change of emphasis still policy. Ergo, we need to do something differently. policy has moved tentatively from incomeneed to be revealed. As the Turning Points papers make clear, redistribution to regional competitiveness. economic conditions are developing rapidly; a However the logical response to the continued changing population, environmental concerns failure to close the UK’s still-growing productivity and massive fiscal contraction in the public and gap is surely much more radical acceleration private sector too. along that path to somewhere approaching the Good governance brings evidence, logic, devolution most economic centres in the analysis and robust strategy to the fore, western world have long prospered from. Better sidelining short-term political considerations places will be ready to pick up that baton and run (local as well as national) for the greater good of with it, if only they are allowed to do so. key objectives – in our case the pursuit of economic growth.
    • NORTHERN ECONOMIC FUTURESConferenceAttendeesProf Peter Ache, Centre for Urban and Regional Andrew Lewis, The Northern WayStudies, Helsinki Beverley Linsley, The Northern WaySam Bacon, Core Cities Allan Little, One North EastProf David Bailey, Chair, Regional Studies John Lowther, Tees ValleyAssociation and University of Birmingham Hakim Mbanzamihigo, Leeds MetropolitanRichard Baker, The Northern Way UniversityPeter Boden, University of Leeds Dave Moorcroft, LiverpoolFrank Bowley, BIS Hugh Morgan-Williams OBE, The Northern WayTom Bridges, Ove Arup Chris Murray, Core CitiesProf Chris Brooks, Science Po, Paris Les Newby, Yorkshire ForwardProf Paul Cheshire, Department of Geography Peter O’Brien, Tyne and Wearand Environment, LSE Dr Christianne Ormston, The Northern WayProf Susan Christopherson, Department of City Prof Henry Overman, Department ofand Regional Planning, Cornell University Environment, LSEProf Mike Coombes, CURDS, Alice Owen, Sustainable DevelopmentNewcastle University CommissionEd Cox, IPPR Prof Michael Parkinson, John Moores, LiverpoolMartin Crookston, Freelance Consultant Kevin Peacock, LiverpoolProf Gordon Dabinett, Town and Regional Beth Perry, Centre for Urban and RegionalPlanning, Sheffield University Futures, SalfordJames Davies, Tyne & Wear City Region Dr Andy Pike, CURDS, Newcastle University,Dr Stuart Dawley, CURDS, Newcastle University SQWScott Dickinson, SQW Simon Pringle, SQWLewis Dijkstra, European Commission Prof Phil Rees, University of LeedsDr Kieron Flannagan, Manchester Institute for Dr Ranald Richardson, CURDS, NewcastleInnovation Research UniversitySimon Foy, Yorkshire Forward Prof Brian Robson, ManchesterBaron Frankal, Manchester Enterprises Prof Andreas Rodriquez-Pose, Department ofJose Enrique Garcilazo, OECD Geograpahy and Environment, LSEProf Dave Gibbs, Centre for City and Regional Gillian Roll, One North EastStudies and Hull Environment Research Paul Rubenstein, Stockport CouncilInstitute, Hull Prof Mark Tewdwr-Jones, Bartlett School ofProf John Goddard, Newcastle University Planning and ArchitectureDr Sara Gonzalez, Leeds University, Prof John Tomaney, CURDS,School of Geography, Newcastle UniversityAnne Green, Warwick University Emmanouil Tranos, Newcastle UniversityRupert Greenhalgh, CLES Matt Waltho, NWDANigel Guy, Yorkshire Cities Martine Winder, Central LancashireProf Alan Harding, Institute for Political and Peter Winter, NWDAEconomic Governance, Manchester University Dave Wood, CLGProf Robert Hassink, Economic Geography Sylvia Yates, Sheffield City RegionResearch Unit, Kiel University, GermanyProf Louise Heathwaite, Co-Director, The full papers and other documentsCentre for Sustainable Water Environment, mentioned in this supplement are availableLancaster University for free download at:Dr Nick Henry, GHK, Principal Research www.thenorthernway.co.uk/northernfuturesConsultantJohn Holden, Manchester EnterprisesProf Ray Hudson, Durham UniversityNicola Hughes, The Northern WayDr Sarah Jackson, N8 ResearchClare Johnson, Yorkshire Futures, DirectorAlexandra Jones, Work FoundationMike Keoghan, BISMick King, Hull and the Humber Ports