PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH  IN TURKISH MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY: 1980-2001 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ...
Perpetual Inventory Method (PIM): <ul><li>There are no data available for the value of physical capital stock in Turkish M...
Application of the TDA (1) <ul><li>Capital’s contribution to VA growth: </li></ul><ul><li>Real rate of return: </li></ul><...
Application of the TDA (2) <ul><li>Output Growth: </li></ul><ul><li>Deflating Output and Capital: </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arz...
Application of the TDA (3) <ul><li>Total wage bill: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>= Basic wage (2/3 of Real GDP/Capita) </...
Application of the TDA (4) <ul><li>Total wage bill equation: </li></ul><ul><li>Change in the total wage bill: </li></ul>27...
Application of the TDA (5) <ul><li>Growth of total labor contribution (GLC): </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of raw labor contrib...
Application of the TDA (6) <ul><li>Growth of human capital contribution (GHCC): </li></ul><ul><li>GHCM:  Growth of Human C...
Application of the TDA (7) <ul><li>Sunrise-Sunset Diagram: </li></ul><ul><li>Growth does not distribute evenly in all sect...
Application of the TDA (8) 27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
Application of the TDA (Calculation of Labor Deflator) (9) 27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ...
Application of the TDA (10) <ul><li>Data: </li></ul><ul><li>The annual nominal Value Added (VA) of each sub sector, the an...
Application of the TDA (11) <ul><li>Data (Cont’d): </li></ul><ul><li>The rates of depreciation corresponding to each secto...
Turkish Manufacturing Industry (1) <ul><li>Twenty-nine main sub sectors </li></ul><ul><li>International Standards of the I...
Turkish Manufacturing Industry (2) <ul><li>The total number of employees in the industry was </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2 milli...
Summary of the Emprical Results <ul><li>GRLC:  Growth of the Raw Labor Contribution </li></ul><ul><li>GHCMC:  Growth of th...
Conclusion (1) <ul><li>T wo main outcomes of this study : </li></ul><ul><li>1) V alue added growth is mainly explained by ...
Conclusion (2) <ul><li>2)  TFP may occur in any industry/firm at any time </li></ul><ul><li>T echnological progress is not...
Conclusion (3) <ul><li>Human  capital quality upgrade  (HCQU)  does not significantly contribute to  VA  growth  and it is...
<ul><li>THANK YOU </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

TFP Growth by TDA Method

345

Published on

Published in: Education
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
345
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "TFP Growth by TDA Method"

  1. 1. PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH IN TURKISH MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY: 1980-2001 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir 27.01.2010
  2. 2. Perpetual Inventory Method (PIM): <ul><li>There are no data available for the value of physical capital stock in Turkish Manufacturing Industry, therefore, it is calculated for each sub sector by the use of PIM. </li></ul><ul><li>The annual nominal sectoral physical capital investments (1976-2001) (Source: SIS, Turkey) </li></ul><ul><li>Change in stocks values (1976-2001) (Source: SIS, Turkey) </li></ul><ul><li>In order to obtain the initial capital stock, first, average investment ( Real value of annual investment + real value of change in stocks ) (1976-1979) is calculated. </li></ul><ul><li>Initial Capital stock: </li></ul><ul><li>average growth rate of the GDP in Turkey, g=0,05 </li></ul><ul><li>d= Depreciation rate of each sub-sector </li></ul>02.06.2009 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Dissertation, Department of Economics, EMU
  3. 3. Application of the TDA (1) <ul><li>Capital’s contribution to VA growth: </li></ul><ul><li>Real rate of return: </li></ul><ul><li>Real value of output: </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  4. 4. Application of the TDA (2) <ul><li>Output Growth: </li></ul><ul><li>Deflating Output and Capital: </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  5. 5. Application of the TDA (3) <ul><li>Total wage bill: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>= Basic wage (2/3 of Real GDP/Capita) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Basic Labor units: </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  6. 6. Application of the TDA (4) <ul><li>Total wage bill equation: </li></ul><ul><li>Change in the total wage bill: </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  7. 7. Application of the TDA (5) <ul><li>Growth of total labor contribution (GLC): </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of raw labor contribution (GRLC): </li></ul><ul><li>Growth of human capital contribution (GHCC): </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  8. 8. Application of the TDA (6) <ul><li>Growth of human capital contribution (GHCC): </li></ul><ul><li>GHCM: Growth of Human Capital Maintenance </li></ul><ul><li>GHCQU: Growth of Human Capital Quality Upgrade </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  9. 9. Application of the TDA (7) <ul><li>Sunrise-Sunset Diagram: </li></ul><ul><li>Growth does not distribute evenly in all sectors of the industry </li></ul><ul><li>TFP concentrates in some sectors </li></ul><ul><li>S-S diagrams help to see the sectors which are positively or negatively contribute to growth </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  10. 10. Application of the TDA (8) 27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  11. 11. Application of the TDA (Calculation of Labor Deflator) (9) 27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  12. 12. Application of the TDA (10) <ul><li>Data: </li></ul><ul><li>The annual nominal Value Added (VA) of each sub sector, the annual nominal sectoral physical capital investments of each sub sector, the annual nominal change in stocks, the number of employees in each sub sector, the nominal wage bill at each sub sector and the population figures are obtained from SIS. </li></ul><ul><li>The VA , the nominal wage bill for labor and capital series are deflated by the GDP Deflator with 2005 prices </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  13. 13. Application of the TDA (11) <ul><li>Data (Cont’d): </li></ul><ul><li>The rates of depreciation corresponding to each sector are obtained from Vergi Usul Kanunu Genel Tebliğ Taslağı. Resmi Gazete . Ankara, Resmi Gazete. 25332 . </li></ul><ul><li>The real wage rate is obtained through deflating the nominal wage rate by the 2/3 of Real GDP per capita </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  14. 14. Turkish Manufacturing Industry (1) <ul><li>Twenty-nine main sub sectors </li></ul><ul><li>International Standards of the Industrial Codes (ISIC) is used </li></ul><ul><li>Textile sector has the biggest value added contribution to total industry’s value added. Its share in total value added is around 20 per cent. </li></ul><ul><li>The employment in textile sector accounts for 30 per cent of the whole manufacturing industry employment </li></ul><ul><li>Turkish Manufacturing Industry depends on the imported raw materials of which share was around 73 per cent by the year 2001. </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  15. 15. Turkish Manufacturing Industry (2) <ul><li>The total number of employees in the industry was </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2 million by 1980 (12,5 percent of total employment in Turkey) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2,5 million by 1990 (14 percent of total employment in Turkey) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3,5 million by 2001 (17 percent of total employment in Turkey) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Most of the firms are specialized at low-tech production </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  16. 16. Summary of the Emprical Results <ul><li>GRLC: Growth of the Raw Labor Contribution </li></ul><ul><li>GHCMC: Growth of the Human Capital Maintenance Contribution </li></ul><ul><li>GHCQUC: Growth of the Human Capital Quality Upgrade Contribution </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  17. 17. Conclusion (1) <ul><li>T wo main outcomes of this study : </li></ul><ul><li>1) V alue added growth is mainly explained by the growth in capital stock by 52% at average. TFP contribution in it is 44% at average. Labor contribution is 4% at average. </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  18. 18. Conclusion (2) <ul><li>2) TFP may occur in any industry/firm at any time </li></ul><ul><li>T echnological progress is not a homogenous phenomena </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  19. 19. Conclusion (3) <ul><li>Human capital quality upgrade (HCQU) does not significantly contribute to VA growth and it is mostly negatively correlated to TFP </li></ul><ul><li>T he contribution of capital stock to growth is significantly higher than the contribution of labor input </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir
  20. 20. <ul><li>THANK YOU </li></ul>27.01.2010 Arzu ALVAN, PhD. Department of Economics, Yaşar Univ., İzmir

×