Latest Equatorial Pacific 'El Nino' Graph

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Latest Equatorial Pacific 'El Nino' Graph - Presentation Transcript

El Niño
The following is a graph extrapolated from the following web site:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Outlook
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).•Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.•The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
More Information about El Niños
Global warming could have a dramatic effect on El Niño, the periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns and calms Atlantic hurricane seasons, according to a new study published this week in the journal Nature.Specifically, the warming might help spur the development of a secondary El Niño, one which forms thousands of miles to the west in the central Pacific Ocean, near the International Date Line. Unlike its kin to the east, the central Pacific El Niño appears to cause more Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes.“There are two El Niños, or flavors of El Niño,” said Ben Kirtman, co-author of the study and professor at the University of Miami.  “In addition to the eastern Pacific El Niño which we know and love, a second El Niño in the central Pacific is on the increase.”Scientists have dubbed the new phenomenon El Niño “Modoki” (the Japanese word " modoki" refers to something that is " similar but different" ). It has been blamed for worsening drought conditions in Australia and India.Of the 11 climate models the scientists used in the research, eight showed that global warming will lead to more central Pacific El Niños. Over the past 20 years, according to the data, the frequency of El Niño Modokis have increased from one out of five to half of all El Niños. By 2100, researchers predict that they will occur five times more often.Additionally, the study reports that an increase in central Pacific El Niño events may also reduce the huricane-shielding effects of the traditional eastern Pacific event.  
" The results described in this paper indicate that the global impacts of El Niño may significantly change as the climate warms," said study lead author Sang-Wook Yeh of the Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute.