Refugees, Food Security, and Resilience in Host Communities.

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May 16 in parallel Session 3C "Conflicts & Displacement: Dealing with Humanitarian Crises". Presented by Jean-Francois Maystadt.

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Refugees, Food Security, and Resilience in Host Communities.

  1. 1. Refugees, Food Security, and Resilience in Host Communities A. Mabiso, J.-F. Maystadt, J. Vandercasteelen, and K. Hirvonen http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security-and-resilience- host-communities Jean-François Maystadt LICOS & IFPRI Email: J.F.Maystadt@cgiar.org @jfmaystadt IFPRI 2020 Conference (May 15, 2014) LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance
  2. 2. Conflict and Food Security • While food security has improved globally over the past decades, it remains a major problem in areas of conflict. • Conflicts have also been found to have detrimental effects on neighboring countries • Understanding the causes of conflict (http://www.ifpri.org/publication/building- resilience-conflict-through-food-security- policies-and-programs) and spillovers mechanisms is needed to build resilience
  3. 3. The burden of hosting refugees? “Major refugee movements can cause food-security problems both among the refugees themselves and in the receiving areas” (FAO 1996, sect; 15)” Source: Mabiso et al. (2014): http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security- and-resilience-host-communities
  4. 4. A misleading correlation Source: Mabiso et al. (2014). Left panel: raw correlation ; Right panel: net of country fixed effects.
  5. 5. Why is the correlation misleading? • Correlation is not causality : Most refugees are hosted in neighboring countries facing food-security problems for many other reasons • No systematic relationship or diluted into national statistics? • More fundamentaly, cross-country analysis is too limited to shed light on complex interactions between refugees and hosts • Too short-sighted view in contrast with the protracted nature of most refugee situations
  6. 6. Taking stock of the evidence
  7. 7. Key lessons learned (1) • Although more evidence is needed, current focus on health and violence too limited • Role of labor and good markets as adaptation mechanisms (see Tanzania, Kenya, Darfur, Uganda) • Immediate upward pressure on nonaid prices affects food accessibility but both food aid and the incentives to produce more can have second-order effects on prices (Werker 2007, Alix-garcia and Saah 2010, Alix-Garcia et al. 2012) • Labor supply by refugees in some cases (e.g. Tanzania) leads to large production increase • Large distributional effects (Maystadt and Verwimp 2014, Kreibaum 2013, Alix-Garcia and Bartlett 2012) • Policy objective: Strengthen adaptative capacities of the host • Increased awareness for env. degradation should be pursued
  8. 8. Key lessons learned (2) • Beyond market mechanisms, provision of local public goods likely to strengthen the capacities of the poor • Little is known about the long-term impact, while that is certainly key for transitioning from humanitarian assistance to developmental efforts • Opportunity to capitalize on investments such as improved road infrastructure and social networks (Maystadt and Duranton 2014) • More evidence would help design appropriate solutions to protracted refugee situations
  9. 9. Moving the research agenda forward • More evidence (based on mixed methods) to generalize findings, draw policy guidelines and understand the legacy of the refugee inflows • Undertake deeper analysis of policy options to solve protracted refugee situations and to assess relative efficiency of different interventions • Better align incentives of policymakers, practitioners, and researchers
  10. 10. APPENDIX A. Mabiso, J.-F. Maystadt, J. Vandercasteelen, and K. Hirvonen LICOS & IFPRI Email: J.F.Maystadt@cgiar.org @jfmaystadt IFPRI 2020 Conference (May 15, 2014) LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance
  11. 11. Recent surge in displacement Source: Mabiso et al. (2014): http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food- security-and-resilience-host-communities
  12. 12. Appendix - Health
  13. 13. Appendix – Production, transport and trade Maystadt and Duranton (2014)
  14. 14. Appendix – Food and nonfood prices
  15. 15. Appendix - Labor

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