Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets presentation

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When those who are given the mandate to govern, make the country ungovernable then the only way out for the civil society is to lead the way to show the leaders that those who are mislead can lead too when the time comes. It is far more important to self-govern than handing over the right to govern to those who cannot see beyond their nose.

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Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets presentation

  1. 1. Pakistan A Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential among Emerging Markets A presentation by Zahid Hussain Khalid for ICMR 2013 International Conference on Growth in Emerging Markets November 21-22, 2013
  2. 2. The Paper and the Presentations on Emerging Markets… ICMR 2011: Emerging Market’s Future – Theoretical Perceptions and Ground Realities http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/emerging-markets-future ICMR 2012: Emerging Markets – Outline of an original plan : Re-invention of education system for national and global good governance, social and economic development http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/re-invention-of-education-systenpdf-presentation ICMR 2013: Growth in Emerging Markets – Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets http://slideshare.net/19540201/pakistan-a-leaderless-leader-in-economic-growth-potential-among-emerging-markets-paper
  3. 3. Slide Sequence INTRODUCTION: Questioning Pakistan’s Economic Growth Potential Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic Growth Map Pakistan’s Real Economic Growth Potential • • • Global Perspective • • • • • • • • • • • Share of CP Market Growth by Region Timeline for takeover by China and India as Global Economic Leaders Code of Professional Proficiency and Ten Future Work Skills Six Drivers of Change Seven Key Challenges and Actions Global State of Talent projected to 2030 The Value Chain of Talent Importance of Equitable Access and Good Quality Education to Private Sector A Major Concern: Employability A much ignored irony of the Education System Analyzing Potential Return to the Private Sector from Investment in Education Contextual Aspects of Governance, Capacity Level s and Evaluation • • • Four Cycles of Preparedness Process Custodianship and Governance in Different Context Three Levels of Capacity How is Pakistan looked at? Country’s National Image Causes and Consequences of the Negative National Image Nine Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance Three Immediate Challenges • • The First Step: Put the House in Order From Where to Begin: Reposition Pakistan Five Territories on the National Activity Map Why Five Territories on the National Activity Map • • • • • Social Political Economic Diplomatic Military National Activity Plan from Civil Society’s Perspective • • • • • Social Activity: Action Political Activity: Action Economic Activity: Action Diplomatic Activity: Action Military Activity: Action CONCLUSION
  4. 4. Introduction Questioning Pakistan’s Economic Growth Potential
  5. 5. 25 Rapid Growth Markets Pakistan is NOT among them! Does it mean that Pakistan Can’t be one of them? SOURCE: “Growing Beyond: Rapid growth market, Winter Edition - January 2013,” Earnst & Young
  6. 6. Ten years of massive growth in Asian international expansion Pakistan is NOT among these too, because she is engaged on war fronts! Asian companies have invested more than US$2.9 trillion in regional and global expansion in the last 10 year. Even 1% of that investment comes to US$29 billion, instead Pakistan has spent more than US$100 billion on WAT with more than 75% negative return on investment. SOURCE: “Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies,” Accenture
  7. 7. All is not well! Rapid Growth Market Forecast 2013 HIGHEST RISK Turkey, Argentina, India, Egypt, Vietnam, Ghana, Indonesia and South Africa MEDIUM RISK Poland, Brazil, Czech Republic, Colombia, Chile, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia. LOWEST RISK Thailand, Russia, Korea, Nigeria, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar Here also Pakistan is NOT entitled to any color code because it has the potential to perform better than all of them! Yes, she can! SOURCE: Earnst & Young Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast – October 2013
  8. 8. Sharp increase in optimism on the growth prospects 6 Renewing focus on sales and marketing is now the top strategic focus overtaking expansion to new markets 1 Strengthened confidence in company performance 5 Attracting and retaining qualified employees continues to be the top internal concerns 4 Consumer demand remains on top of the list of external concerns 2 Sanguinity about some company-level risks KEY FINDINGS OF THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY 3 Willingness to invest more on sales, marketing and R&D First Quarter 2013 Can Pakistan’s Corporate Leaders also endorse this optimism as theirs too? Yes, they can ONLY if they keep the country in mind instead of petty personal interests and build national corporate assets instead of family business empires. SOURCE: CFO innovation Asia, Business Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2013
  9. 9. Heightened optimism in country of operation and at company levels across Asia Optimism at country of operation level Optimism at company level Do Pakistan’s people, their government and corporate leaders have any reason to be optimist? They don’t. But they have every reason to be optimist? SOURCE: CFO innovation Asia, Business Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2013
  10. 10. Pakistan’s Real Economic Growth Potential
  11. 11. More than one reason to be optimist… What this slide reflects are Pakistan’s geographic advantage, demographic strength, highest regional GDP in Asia, and military restraint. Why the question mark after the photographs of the top leaders? You can very well guess the answer because that is the title of this presentation. So, what did Pakistan miss on the global front and why?
  12. 12. Global Perspective Share of CP Market Growth by Region Timeline of Takeover by China and India as Global Economic Leaders Code of Professional Proficiency and Ten Future Work Skills Six Drivers of Change Seven Key Corporate Challenges and Actions Global State of Talent Projected to 2030 The Value Chain of Talent Importance of Equitable Access and Good-Quality Education to Private Sector A Major Concern: Employability The Much Ignored Irony of the System of Education Analyzing Potential Returns to the Private Sector from Investment in Education
  13. 13. Share of world CP market growth, 2012 to 2017, by region “Between 2012 and 2017, the share of world CP market growth coming from emerging Asia will rise from 29% to 38%.” Pakistan has the potential to contribute more than any other country in the region by drawing natural and human resource maps and seriously working on them to make them appear on the world economic map. SOURCE: EY analysis from Euromonitor data, June 2013., Brand New Order – “Profit or lose Balancing the growth-profit paradox for global consumer products companies and retailers in Asia’s emerging markets,” Earnst & Young, 2013
  14. 14. Timeline of takeover by China and India as global economic leaders China is moving ahead cautiously, India’s claim to third position in global economic leadership is doubted, though not impossible yet, and Pakistan is striving for an “externally borrowed” breathing space. Will Pakistan be able to even join the race? Yes, Pakistan can by relying on its own natural and human resources governed and managed by responsible political and corporate leaders.
  15. 15. Six Drivers of Change 1: Extreme Longevity Increasing global life-spans change the nature of careers and learning 2: Rise of smart machines and systems Workplace automation nudges human workers out of rote, repetitive tasks 3: Computational world Massive increases in the sensors and processing power make the world a programmable system 4: New Media Ecology New communication tools require new media literacies beyond text 5: Super-structured organizations Social technologies drive new forms of production and value creation 6: Globally connected world Increased global interconnectivity puts diversity and adaptability at the center of organizational structures 70% young Pakistanis have to grow up; familiarize with smart machines and systems; connect with computational world; try to know the architects and understand the reach and impact of new media ecology, found or become part of super-structured organizations and prepare to become active citizens of globally connected world. SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011
  16. 16. Code of professional proficiency in future Proficiency depends on observation, probe, understanding, experimenting, concluding, testing, succeeding, packaging, communicating, networking and collaborating. SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011
  17. 17. Key Corporate Challenges and Actions KEY CHALLENGES Decision-making processes and authority are over-concentrated in global headquarters ACTIONS Mentoring and coaching programs focused on global leadership Overseas offices' lack of respect for the leadership authority of headquarters Personality and leadership assessment for global leadership Lack of clear structure in top leadership roles and processes Cultural sensitivity training Leadership across functions and geographies lacking alignment on the common goals of the global organization Regular global videoconferencing or other advanced communications Governance structures are not clearly understood by staff outside of the home country connecting talent across the global company into teams or workshops Lack of ability to hold overseas offices accountable for not complying with processes and procedures 360-degree feedback for global leadership team members Weak cross-border collaboration Offering international assignments and global rotation programs Pakistanis are capable of accepting the challenges and always found ready to come into action whenever they were assigned the task to do so in the interest of their country. But, instead of country benefitting from their actions the rewards ended up in foreign bank accounts of corrupt political leaders, criminal corporate mafias, bureaucrats and army generals. PEOPLE WANT CHANGE! TO BEGIN WITH FOCUS ON COUNTRY’S HIGHLY TALENTED YOUTH… SOURCE: “Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies,” Accenture
  18. 18. The present global state of talent with the right skills, Projected to 2030 The greater availability and demand of talent in Pakistan underlines the need for the development of Pakistan’s Human Resource Development Maps for educating and preparing them for national and global competencies. SOURCE: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2006), 155./ “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013
  19. 19. The Value Chain of Talent The Value Chain of Talent demands planning for a citizen’s “Seven Stages of Life” from early childhood to either entrepreneurship or employment and a post-retirement concern-free life. SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013
  20. 20. The Importance of Equitable Access and Good-Quality Education to the Private Sector PROBLEM: “Despite increasing demand for talent and rising pool of available workers, ‘employability’ will appear as a major concern.” SOLUTION: “Enhance size and quality of talent pool Reduce talent acquisition and retention cost Reduce learning and development costs.” SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013
  21. 21. The ignored irony of the system of education MONTHLY HHOUSEHOLD BUDGET ALLOCATIONS ON EDUCATION “I CANNOTAFFORD EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES WHERE I LIVE.” The present system of education across the globe is evidently producing classes of different levels of employees who rarely move from lower managerial level to higher managerial level and this will be noticed not in the distant but the near future. The most aspect of this ironic situation is the need for understanding the seriousness of the psychological and social dimensions of this issue before it’s too late. SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013 SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013
  22. 22. Analyzing Potential Returns to the Private Sector from Investment in Education Does this yardstick to measure “profitability of investment in education: concepts and methods,” have a module to evaluate the return on investment to Pakistan or to that matter any other country? Note: This approach employs the “full discounting method” referred to by as opposed to the Mincerian earnings function commonly used by labor economists. “The Profitability Of Investment In Education: Concepts and Methods.” SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013
  23. 23. Contextual Aspects of Governance, Capacity Level and Evaluation Four Cycles of Preparedness Process Custodianship and Governance in Different Context Three Levels of Capacity
  24. 24. Framework for institutional performance evaluations Do our systems of governance and education meet any of the criteria such as motivation, environment, capacity and performance? SOURCE: Universalia 1985; IDRC 1991; Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance, The World Bank 2011.
  25. 25. Process Custodianship and Governance in Different Contexts Does the government of Pakistan have an Integrated “Contextual National Agenda,” and a “Set of Natural and Human Resource Maps?” SOURCE: Mohammad A. Jaljouli, “Evaluation Systems as Strategy Management Tools: Building Dubai’s Institutional Learning Capacity,” - “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” The World Bank 2011.
  26. 26. The Three Levels of Capacity Does the existing system of overall national, provincial and district level political and corporate governance reflect any one of the three levels of capacity except the capacity of individuals to the extent of their personal interest and benefit? NOW, LET US POSITION PAKISTAN ON THE WORLD ECONOMIC MAP OF RAPID-GROWTH ECONOMIES… SOURCE: Caroline Heider, A Conceptual Framework for Developing Evaluation Capacities: Building on Good Practice, “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” The World Bank 2011.
  27. 27. Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic Map How is Pakistan Looked At? Pakistan’s National Image Causes and Consequences of the Negative National Image Who is Responsible: Nine Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance Three Immediate Challenges The First Step: Put the House in Order From Where to Begin? …Reposition Pakistan
  28. 28. Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic Map How is Pakistan looked at?
  29. 29. How is Pakistan looked at? Crime Mafias and Terrorist Groups Lack of National Consensus Communication Lock National Image
  30. 30. What are the causes and the consequences? ILLITERACY AND IGNORANCE SECTARIANISM AND UNEMPLOYMENT TERRORISM RELIGIOUS, ETHNIC AND POLITICAL PREJUDICES INJUSTICE AND VIOLATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS With no plan in hand and no funds available to break this Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils POVERTY DEPRIVATION CRIME AND CORRUPTION PSYCHOLOGICAL STRESS What you see here is an Unbreakable Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils
  31. 31. Who is responsible? CARELESS RULERS PERPETUAL STATE OF UNCERTAINTY ECONOMIC STRANGULATION AND SOVEREIGNTY IN DOUBT EXTERNAL RELIANCE FOR BUDGET TARGETS SELF-SERVING PUBLIC SERVANTS The Dilemma of the world’s most powerful human and natural resource rich country of the Muslim world INEFFECTIVE DEBT MANAGEMENT SOCIALLY IRRESPONSIBLE CORPORATE CONGLOMERATES PARALYZED LAW ENFORCING AGENCIES INCOMPETENT MONETARY AND FISCAL MANAGERS Nine Ignored and Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance by the voters in Pakistan
  32. 32. Three Immediate Challenges The First Step: Put the House in Order From Where to Begin Reposition Pakistan
  33. 33. Three immediate challenges Dis-configured System of Governance Lack of Consensus and The Way Out
  34. 34. The first step: put the house in order STATE OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS Political
  35. 35. From where to begin? Reposition Pakistan An integrated district, provincial and federal Governance Plan based on a set of natural and human resource maps in line with country’s tangible and intangible elements of national power and Strategic National Economic Vision and its alignment with the demands of Globalization for safeguarding national interest and benefitting from resulting gains of keeping pace with Global Economic Growth.
  36. 36. Five Territories on the National Activity Map Social Territory Political Territory Economic Territory Diplomatic Territory Military Territory
  37. 37. Five territories on the National Activity Map Geographic Military Location Military Demographic Strength Mix CIVIL SOCIETY? Political Economic Leadership Growth STATE OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
  38. 38. Social territory on the national activity map… Social territory is a nucleus around which the other four territories on the national activity map revolve. A family, therefore, is a focal point with reference to social and civil rights and responsibilities. In order to understand its role in national politics national planning needs to focus on an individuals seven stages of life. Each transition of an individual’s life from one stage to the other till his death reflects a change in his role, his rights and his responsibilities as member of his family, society and the state.
  39. 39. Political territory on the national activity map… PARTY MANIFESTO PRESSURES OF GLOBALIZATION HOW TO REMAIN FOCUSED? EXPECTATIONS OF VOTERS COALITION CONCERNS AND DAY-TO-DAY DEMANDS AND PRESSURES Politics has become subservient to an “adjustable” party agenda on “day-to-day basis” instead of “manifesto focused” governance to represent the voters in democratic as well as non-democratic political systems across the globe. It appears that heads of different pillars of the state in Pakistan have decided neither to play nor let the others play. Interestingly, all the parties neither playing nor letting others play have nothing personal at stake. Their future is secured socially, politically and economically. They are not bothered about the future of the country or its more than 180 million unfortunate people.
  40. 40. Economic territory on the national activity map… EASE OF DOING BUSINESS NO OR NOMINAL TAX REGIMES CAPITAL FLIGHT AVAILABILITY OF CHEAP LABOR NO OR MINIMUM REGULATORY INTERVENTION Pakistan is one of the top listed emerging market’s economies with higher Regional GDP than the most preferred emerging economies in different continents of the world ( http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/potential-of-investment-in-pakistan-12752206 ). Why Pakistan has failed to take any small or significant advantage of its globally acknowledged pro-investment inflow position on Global Investment Flows Map of the World? The answer is carefully engineered disconfiguration of Pakistan’s elements of national power with the connivance of the pawns of enemies of Pakistan placed at different management levels in almost every pillar of the state. These allegedly known and unknown pawns in every pillar of the state have perpetuated a state of permanent uncertainty in such a way that nothing in any area of economy can be planned and implemented with foreseeable, dependable or predictable timeline. http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistans-independence-day-message-to-government-and-people-of-pakistan
  41. 41. Diplomatic territory on the national activity map… GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION AFGHANISTAN CHINA AND SOUTH ASIA PAKISTAN IRAN MIDDLE EAST DEFENCE CAPABILITY POLITICAL & CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERSHIP? NATURAL & HUMAN RESOURCES ECONOMIC & INVESTMENT POTENTIAL In today’s globally and economically interconnected world diplomacy is an art that keeps a country on the safe side economically and militarily in a highly unpredictable world of today. Diplomatic activity, therefore, is the most sensitive of all other activities on the National Activity Map. Diplomacy is not a day-to-day affair. It is considered as the backbone of a country’s National Strategic Vision and Goals. Governments come and go but the National Strategic Vision and Goals do not change with the changes in and around a country. A country’s vigilant leaders always remain fully cognizant of developments in and around borders of their countries. It would not be surprising at all if a student of international affairs described the diplomatic consequences of a war other than military and military actions across the Muslim world in one sentence: “The end of the political Muslim world will be prevented only by an unthinkable, unimaginable and unbelievable miracle.” http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/america-the-great-game-and-the-greater-middle-east-an-undiscussed-perspectiveunveiling-the-birth-of-conspiracy-theories
  42. 42. Military territory on the national activity map… THEORY OF PREEMPTION NEED FOR LEGISLATIVE COVER PSY-OPS AND MILITARY WEB CONFUSING MILITARY AND POLITICAL TACTICS MILITARY OPERATION OTHER THAN WAR 9/11 is a turning point in the history of diplomacy and military in a sense that the unilateral and multilateral application of the theory of preemptive strike and the concept of military operation other than war in war theaters in almost all continents of the world have exposed the political and military leaders to new challenges. The political leaders have to justify the social, economic and diplomatic consequences of involvement in externally advised or internally planned military action within and outside a country. Similarly, military leaders have to seek parliamentary cover prior to involvement in war against terror in and around a country. Consequently, not only the political and military leaders are under tremendous pressures to justify their actions and the impact of those actions on five territories of National Activity Map. http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/malala-mishap-and-global-media-scenario-in-retrospect-taliban-and-pakistan and http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/the-weaknesses-of-the-muslims
  43. 43. National Action Plan from Civil Society’s Perspective Social Territory: Action Political Territory: Action Economic Territory: Action Diplomatic Territory: Action Military Territory: Action
  44. 44. Highlights of the National Action Plan from civil society’s perspective SOCIAL ACTIVITY: ACTION In order to make its voice heard, the civil society needs to get organized, create public pressure groups, personal security and social response platforms and pick up their politically uninfluenced and unbiased civil society leaders. POLITICAL ACTIVITY: ACTION Civil society needs to come up with its own selection process and create platforms for the nomination of candidates for national and provincial assemblies and the senate. The right of selecting a candidate must be taken back from the political party leaders. Civil Society has to develop a mechanism for the investigation of public complaints against the office holders of the four pillars of the state and take the culprits to courts and judicial council no matter how highly placed and important they are and see that the justice is done. Presently ongoing superior court proceedings in NRO and other cases have established beyond any doubt that the constitution of Pakistan is seriously flawed and evidently provides shameful cover to criminals once they are elected. These flaws need to be pointed out by the civil society for immediate review and appropriate correction. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: ACTION The government of Pakistan does not have a National Economic Vision, Natural and Human Resource Potential and Performance Map and rationalized Public Administration Expenditure Manuel. The bureaucracy does not have a “Public Service Code of Conduct” that binds it to remain open and available to ideas and projects of national importance. Presidential immunity is used by section officers and federal secretaries for hiding incompetence, negligence, indifference and corruption at every level of state management operation. Civil Society has to create platforms for addressing the highlighted state management loopholes.
  45. 45. Highlights of the National Action Plan from civil society’s perspective DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY: ACTION Pakistan’s ideal geographical location makes it one of the most fortunate countries in the world but the situation in and around Pakistan has made it the most unfortunate and rightly or wrongly the most ridiculed piece of land. How to reverse this situation to Pakistan’s advantage. The key for that is the proper evaluation of Pakistan’s tangible and intangible elements of national power and their reconfiguration for proper positioning and utilization of country’s ideal geographical location, its rich natural and human resources, its incomparably unique economic and investment potential, its one of the finest armed forces in the world. MILITARY ACTIVITY: ACTION It will not be inappropriate and out of place to blame Pakistan’s military commanders for the overall mess Pakistan is in. So far Pakistan’s military commanders have repeatedly jumped in to put the country’s democracy back on track but always gifted Pakistanis a much bigger mess before they left. Now instead of trying another way out in an old manner it will be advisable to use the civil society giving them military cover in getting their right to self-govern back to them in its true sense. How that can be done? That can be done only by mobilizing “Influence Groups” in every walk of life through “Specific Self-Governance Tasks” within a given timeline.
  46. 46. The Way Out… SOCIAL MILITARY POLITICAL NATIONAL ACTIVITY PUZZLE DIPLOMATIC ECONOMIC NATIONAL EMERGENCY PLAN Creation and integration of territories on National Activity Map When those who are given the mandate to govern make the country ungovernable then the only way out for the civil society is to lead the way to show the leaders that those who are mislead can lead too when the time comes. It is far more important to self-govern than handing over the right to govern to those who cannot see beyond their nose.
  47. 47. Growth in Emerging Markets: Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistan-a-leaderless-leader-in-economic-growth-potential-among-emerging-markets-paper THE PAPER READING LIST
  48. 48. Some more reading material…
  49. 49. Some more reading material…

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