Is it a cashless future? David G.W. Birch ATMs & Kiosks, SMi (May 2008)

David G.W. Birch

ATMs & Kiosks, SMi (May 2008)

David G.W. Birch Director, Consult Hyperion, www.chyp.com Chair, Digital Money Forum, www.digitalmoneyforum.com Driver, Digital Money, www.digitalmoneyforum.com /blog Editor, Digital Mo ney Reader, www.amazon.co.uk Podcaster, iTunes store, search “ consult hyperion ” Blogger, 15Mb, blog.dgwbirch.com Author, Digital Identity Management, www.gowerpub.com Columnist, Financial World, www.financialworld.co .uk

The future of money Edward Bellamy and the first “credit card” Looking forward by looking back Actually it was a pre-authorised offline debit card, but let’s not let that get in the way of the story Remember the shocking question! If you make pens …you don’t predict PINs V1 (4/08)

Edward Bellamy and the first “credit card”

Looking forward by looking back

Actually it was a pre-authorised offline debit card, but let’s not let that get in the way of the story

Remember the shocking question!

If you make pens

…you don’t predict PINs

Is it a cashless future? What’s wrong with cash? Is there any data? Can technology do better? The winners and losers

What’s wrong with cash?

Is there any data?

Can technology do better?

The winners and losers

Cash Bits about atoms Banking babylon and the end of the Pony Express Bits about bits The fiat currency era Discontents What’s not to like from the “left” and “right”

Bits about atoms

Banking babylon and the end of the Pony Express

Bits about bits

The fiat currency era

Discontents

What’s not to like from the “left” and “right”

Bits about atoms Giro banking, goldsmiths and gold standards Notes and coins are a tiny fraction of money V1 (4/08)

Giro banking, goldsmiths and gold standards

Notes and coins are a tiny fraction of money

Bits about bits Tricky Dickie and the fiat currency era Cards, cash machines and cash management accounts Innovation in action V1 (4/08)

Tricky Dickie and the fiat currency era

Cards, cash machines and cash management accounts

Innovation in action

Discontents and digital money tribes Hayek and the crusaders Denationalisation Idealists left and right Ron Paul and the echoes of bimetallism Determinists (like me) Mobile phones and means of exchange Non-bankers P2P Businesspersons De Bono and the IBM dollar V1 (4/08)

Hayek and the crusaders

Denationalisation

Idealists left and right

Ron Paul and the echoes of bimetallism

Determinists (like me)

Mobile phones and means of exchange

Non-bankers

P2P

Businesspersons

De Bono and the IBM dollar

Data: developed countries Europe Efficiency and the euro US Check mate Japan Land of the rising phone bill

Europe

Efficiency and the euro

US

Check mate

Japan

Land of the rising phone bill

Europe More euros than dollars In “circulation” Social costs vs. costs Estimated at 0.5% of GDP Cost-based pricing Target 1 in 4 transactions on debit card V1 (4/08)

More euros than dollars

In “circulation”

Social costs vs. costs

Estimated at 0.5% of GDP

Cost-based pricing

Target 1 in 4 transactions on debit card

US Most cash is outside U.S. Proxies indicate cash usage peaked a decade ago V1 (4/08)

Most cash is outside U.S.

Proxies indicate cash usage peaked a decade ago

Japan 40m mobile wallets 1 in 6 mobile subscribers use contactless 5m PC interfaces already sold More than two-thirds of laptops V1 (4/08)

40m mobile wallets

1 in 6 mobile subscribers use contactless

5m PC interfaces already sold

More than two-thirds of laptops

Data: developing countries Asia Innovation away from the Internet Africa One mobile per child! Latin America Branchless banking and bankless banking

Asia

Innovation away from the Internet

Africa

One mobile per child!

Latin America

Branchless banking and bankless banking

Asia G-Cash and Smart in the Philippines E-Tong in China SKT Visa and KTF MasterCard in Korea NETS and EZ-Link in Singapore and others… V1 (4/08)

G-Cash and Smart in the Philippines

E-Tong in China

SKT Visa and KTF MasterCard in Korea

NETS and EZ-Link in Singapore

and others…

Africa M-PESA in Kenya as a case study Cellpay, Wizzit and many more V1 (4/08)

M-PESA in Kenya as a case study

Cellpay, Wizzit and many more

Latin America Branchless banking and shared agent networks in Brazil Cash, cards and cellular comparisons V1 (4/08)

Branchless banking and shared agent networks in Brazil

Cash, cards and cellular comparisons

What does the technology platform enable? Banking Social networks and personal payments Business De Bono and the IBM Dollar Community Regional differences

Banking

Social networks and personal payments

Business

De Bono and the IBM Dollar

Community

Regional differences

Banking The relationship between banking and payments Social networks and personal payments to reshape system V1 (4/08)

The relationship between banking and payments

Social networks and personal payments to reshape system

Business Private currencies: the Vodafone minute vs. the Zimbabwe $ V1 (4/08)

Private currencies: the Vodafone minute vs. the Zimbabwe $

Community Babysitting vouchers, time dollars, LETS Regional currencies V1 (4/08)

Babysitting vouchers, time dollars, LETS

Regional currencies

Winners and losers Winners The economy? E-commerce? Banks? Losers Criminals? Tax evaders? ATM manufacturers?

Winners

The economy? E-commerce? Banks?

Losers

Criminals? Tax evaders? ATM manufacturers?

Winners Economic growth Reduced crime But if criminals can’t steal money, will they stop being criminals Reduced tax evasion Banks No more cash handling, filling ATMs, armed robbery Poor people Who currently have the highest transaction charges V1 (4/08)

Economic growth

Reduced crime

But if criminals can’t steal money, will they stop being criminals

Reduced tax evasion

Banks

No more cash handling, filling ATMs, armed robbery

Poor people

Who currently have the highest transaction charges

Losers and the pound (not) in your pockets It costs the US mint 1.7 cents to make a penny The note issuing department of the Bank of England is the most profitable nationalised industry ever V1 (4/08)

It costs the US mint 1.7 cents to make a penny

The note issuing department of the Bank of England is the most profitable nationalised industry ever

Thank you! David G.W. Birch [email_address] www.dgwbirch.com Consult Hyperion www.chyp.com And see www.chyp.com/podcasts Digital Money Forum blog www.digitalmoney forum.com/blog

David G.W. Birch

[email_address]

www.dgwbirch.com

Consult Hyperion

www.chyp.com

And see www.chyp.com/podcasts

Digital Money Forum blog

www.digitalmoney forum.com/blog