Thai flood 2011 and risk perception (Japanese)
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Thai flood 2011 and risk perception (Japanese)

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  • こんいちわ渡邊研究室 はがせ にねんせい ピリヤ です今日 は タイ洪水のリスク認識 について話しますKyōwa Tai kōzui no risukuninshikinitsuitehanashimasu
  • Have anybody watched Thailand flood news?First, let’s see what 2011flood in Thailand looks like? (click vdo)みなさん いままで タイ洪水のニュース を みたことが ありますか?まず さいしょに タイの洪水のよす を みてみましょう
  • In this presentation, it will be このはっぴょうのコンテント は2011年の タイ洪水は どのようにして 起こったのか ?  2011-Nen no Tai kōzuiwadonoyōnishiteokotta no ka?アユタヤ地域の 工業団地 における 洪水状況  Ayutayachiiki no Kōgyōdanchiniokerukōzuijōkyō洪水の 影響  Kōzui no eikyō洪水リスク認識  Kōzuirisukuninshikihow flood occurCauses of Thai flood Flooding Industrial parks in AyudthayaThe impact from floodAnd flood risk perception related to this thai flood.
  • let start with how flood occur?
  • These are main causes of flooding in Thailand今回の 洪水の おもな 原因はKonkai no kouzui no omonage-in waSevere monsoon度重なる勢力の強いモンスーンの襲来Tabikasanarutsuyoi monsoon no syu-raiDeforestation and land use change森林伐採と土地利用の変化Shinrinbassai to tochiriyou no henkaDam managementダムのマネジメントです。Soshite, dam no management desu.
  • This year,thailand was hit by monsoon and typhoonKotoshi monsoon to taifu- gathaiwoOsoimashita.It was Hai Ma in June6gatsu niHai MaNok Ten in July 7gatsu niNok TenNe Sad and Hai Tang in September and9gatsu ni Ne Sad to Hai TangTyphoon NalGe in OctoberSoshite 10gatsu niNalGe to yu- taifu- gakimashita.As a result, water amount was more than usual.Sonokekka, suiryo- gareinenyoriookunattanodesu.
  • Land-use change, urbanization, deforestation, and cultivationreduces soil infiltration capacity, lower soil porosity. Tochiriyo- no henka, toshi-ka, shinrinbassai, soshite, kaitakuniyottetuchi no shinto-nouryokuyaKu-gekiritugaochimashitaIt results in increased flood frequency and severity. kekka, kouzuigahinpannioki, yorishinkokunahigai to naru.
  • four river , ping, wang, yom, nan, flow from north of Thailand and join together become Chao praya river at NakonSawan Province then flow to bangkok and gulf of thailand.Ping, wang, vom, soshite nan no yottsunokawa ha thai no hokubukaranagare, NakonSawan-ken de go-ryu- shi, Chao prayagawa to nari, bangkok to nagare, tai-wan(タイ湾)he nagaremasu.There are two dams operating water in chaopraya basinChao prayaryu-ikiniwafutatsu no dam gaairmasu.Bhumipol dam on ping river and Sirikit dam on nan riverPing gawaniaruBhumipol dam to nan gawaniaru, Sirikit dam desu.
  • This is a rule curve (graph of water level to be regulated) of Bhumipol dam.KorewaBhumipol dam no ru-ruka-budesu.Purple line is maximum water level and orange is the minimum water level.Murasaki no line ha max no mizu level woshimeshi, orenjiwasaitei level woshimeshimasu.The red line is actual water level.Aka wajissai no mizu no level desu.After Nok-Ten storm, water in the dam was 63%.Nok-ten no ato, dam no mizuwa 63% deshita.But the dam didn’t release water because some area downstream was flood.Shikashi, dam ha kayu-ikigashinsuishiteita tame, ho-ryu- shimasenndeshita.After that, four storms came and water level in the dam is almost full.Sonogo, yottu no suto-mu ga kite, dam no mizuwa hobo ippaininarimashita.Bhumipol dam start to release water through spillway on 5-13 October 2011 for 3000 million cubic meter10gatu 5nichi kara 13 nichiniBhumipol dam wa 30oku ryu-bei no mizuwohouryushimashita.These water put together with water flow from north and became big amount of flood.Konomizugahokubukaranomizuwoissyoninattedaikibonakouzui to narimashita.
  • Same phenomena occurred with Sirikitti dam.Onajigensyo- gaSirikit dam demo okimashita.
  • Chao PraYa river has capacity of 3500 m3/sec.Chao prayagawawa 3500m3/sec. no nouryokugaarimasu.But water released from dam of 610 m3/sec and water flow from north along flood plane of 2040 m3/sec together caused big flood in central of Thailand.Shikashi, dam kara610 m3/sec no mizu to hokubukarakouzui-men nisotte 2040 m3/sec de nagaretekitamizugathaichu-oubu de go-ryu-shiookinakouzui to natta.
  • Thailand has 10 billion cubic meter of water on land今年9月、タイでの 降水量は 100億㎥ でしたKotoshi 9 tsuki, Tai de no kōsui-ryōwa 100 okurewbeริวเบdeshita
  • Simply, this water is equal to 50 million blue whalesわかりや すく 言うと、この 水の 量は5000万頭分の くじらに 相当します。Wakariyasukuiu to, konomizu no ryōwa 5000 man atama-bun no kujiranisōtōshimasu.
  • So how to bring those whales to gulf of Thailand as fast as possible.では、この くじらを どのようにして いち早く タイ湾へ 送れば いいでしょう?Dewa, konokujira o donoyōni shite ichihayaku Tai-wan e okurebaīdeshou?Currently, there are three route to bring those whales to the see現在、3つのルートがあります。Genzai, mittsu no rūtogaarimasu.TahJeen RiverBang Pa Kong river andChao PraYa river
  • By these roots, we can take only one million whales into the sea each day.これらの ルートからは、毎日 100万頭ずつしか くじらは通れません。Korera no rūtokarawa, mainichi 100 man-tōzutsushikakujirawatōremasen.So, that means we will need 50 days to bring all whales to the sea.つまり、すべての くじらを 移動するには 50日 かかるのです。Tsumari, subete no kujira o idōsuruniwa 50-nichi kakarunodesu.Or it means we will have flood for at least 50 days
  • This simulation shows the flood condition from 3rd October to 21st Novemberこれは 2011年10月3日 から 11月21日までの 洪水の 状況を 示したものです。Korewa 2011-nen 10 tsuki 3-nichi kara 11 tsuki 21-nichi made no kōzui no jōkyō o shimeshitamonodesu.
  • In thailand, there are many japanese factories located in industrial parks in Ayuthaya.Thai niwaookunonihon no ko-jogaAyuthaya no industrial park niarimasu.From this big flood, those industrial parks were flooded.Konkai no kouzui de industrial park washinsuishimashita.
  • This is Hi-tech industrial park.Korewa Hi-tech industrial park no syashindesu.It is located near Chao PraYa river. It was flooded on 16 October 2011.Chao prayagawa no chikakuniichishi, 10gatu 16nichi nishinsuishimashita.In the top-right corner picture, you can see that water level at the industrial park is same as the Cha PraYa water level. Migiue no syashin de, industrial park no mizu no level to chaoprayagawa no mizu no level gaonajininatteirunogawakarimasu.Two pictures at the bottom shows that water level decrease on 13 November 2011Shita no 2mai no syashinwa 11gatu 13 nichinimizu level gasagattekiteirunogawakarimasu.
  • This is another industrial park. Bang Pa Inn was flooded on 15 October 2011.Korehasonohoka no industrial park desu. 10gatsu 15nichi ni Bang Pa inn washinsuishimashita.
  • This is thenawanakon industrial park. Same situation as Hitech and Bang Pa Inn.Koreha, Nawanakorn industrial park desu. Hitechya Bang pa inn to onajiyounajo-kyo- desu.
  • As a result of flooding 5 industrial parks in Ayudhtaya and 2 industrial parks in Patumthani were flooded.Kekka, Ayudhaya no itsutsu no industrial park to Patumthani no indastrial park no nikasyogashinsuishimashita.This lost has value approximate 1% of national GDPKonosongaiwakokumin so-se-san(GDP) no oyoso 1.5% nisoutoushimasu.
  •  こうすい の えいきょう
  • こうすい の えいきょうKōkyōbumonKōkyōbumonHisai-sha 13, 595, 192 Hisaikaoku 4, 086, 138 Shibōshasū 693 Hisaibunkazaikensū 313 Hinan-shasū 1, 820, 931 Hinanbashosū 1, 739 Hisaikyōikushisetsu 3, 088According to this flood,Flood damage to social sector are as followingPopulation 13,595,192Households 4,086,138Deaths 693Temples cultural sites 313Evacuee 1,820,931Shelters 1,739Schools 3,088 
  • KeizaibumonHigaisōgakuwa 45 oku USD ninoboru (Sekaiginkō no shisanniyoru) NōgyōShinsuinōchi 12. 61 Mirion ha. KōgyōShinsuiKōgyōdanchi 7 danchiKōjō 883 Hisairōdō-sha 382, 693 RyokōHigai-gaku 150 mirion yen Economic sectors被害総額は45億USDにのぼる(世界銀行の試算による)Agriculture inundated farmland 12.61 million ha.IndustryInundated industrial estate 7 estates Factories 883Workers 382,693 Tourism Estimate lost 150 million yen
  • Thai flood 2011 had effect to world supply chain.タイの 洪水は 世界の サプライチェーン に 影響しました。 Tai no kōzuiwasekai no sapuraichēnnieikyōshimashita.Many Japanese companies in automobiles, electronics and food sectors are affected.多くの 日本の 自動車、電子機器、そして 食品部門関連会社に 影響を 及ぼしました。Ōku no Nihon no jidōsha, denshikiki, soshiteshokuhinbumonkanrengaishanieikyō o oyoboshimashita.For example, Honda, Toyota, Nissan and Isuzu in automobiles.たとえば、 ホンダ、トヨタ、ニッサン や スズキなどの 自動車会社 など です。Tatoeba, Honda, Toyota, Nissan ya Suzuki nado no jidōshakaishanadodesu.
  • This is also numbers of production that affect the world supply chain due to this flood.これらは 洪水で どれだけ サプライチェーンに 影響が 出たかを 示します。25% of hard disk drive world productionAt least 10-12% of word semiconductor productionJapan automobile company lost 6000 of car production per day80% of Nikon digital camera production80% of world computer hard drive motor
  • こうずい りすく にんしきと たいおう
  • Flood risk management is a cycle of these three elementsKouzui risk management ha ika no mittsu no youso no cycle desu.Risk perceptionRisk no ninshikiRisk communication andRisk no dentatu, soshiteRisk behavior (in term of decision-making)Risk enotaioudesu
  • Risk perception refers to the intuitive risk judgments of individuals and social groups in the context of limited information.Risk no ninshikiwakagirareta information no nakade, kojinya group no honno-teki risk handanniyorimasu.These judgments vary between individual due to the different levels of information, different personality, different position of interest.Korera no handan ha jouhouryou, seikaku, kyoumi no chigainiyottesorezorechigattekimasu.
  • This is a schematic overview of the individual risk perception and result in individual risk behavior.Korewakojin no risk ninshiki to kojin no risk nitaisuruko-do- no zentaizo- desu.Perception and acceptance of risk depends on three types of riskfactors Risk no ninshiki to rikai ha ika no san syurui no risk factor niyorimasu.Socio-cultural context1Syakai-bunka tekihaikeiRisk characteristic2Risk no seishituPersonal advantages3Kojin no ritenSo, risk perception depends on personality.Shitagatte risk no ninshikiwasonohito no seikakuniyorunodesu.
  • After conversation with some thais, in case of industrial park flood, risk perception was low according to Kougyoudanchi no kouzuinikanshitesu-nin no thaijinnitazuneru to,TaijinwaNot believe that this flood could really happenこの様な被害が本当に起こるとは思っていないDo not think that they could be affected by flood洪水の被害にあうとは考えていないTrust in flood protection ; dykes and levees are high and strong洪水対策の過信; 堤防は十分高く、強いTo kangae, kouzui risk no ninshikigahikuikotogawakatta.
  • This is dikes that was constructed to fight against flood.But it could not.Korewakouzui you no dogo- desu.Demo,umakuikimasendeshita.
  • So we may promote acceptance for flood risk byYottekouzui risk no rikaiwoikaniyottesokushindekimasu.Increase self-consciousness about disaster preparedness through risk communicationリスク情報の伝達によって、災害への備えに対する個人の意識を高めるRisukujōhō no dentatsuniyotte, saigai e no sonaenitaisurukojin no ishiki o takameruIt is impossible to achieve zero riskリスクの無い社会は無いという事を理解するRisuku no nai shakai wa nai to iu koto o rikai suruEstablish relationships and trust between public and administrative bodies一般市民と行政との信頼を確立するIppanshimin to gyōsei to no shinrai o kakuritsusuru
  • I would like to finish my presentation with some pictures after flood.Saigonikouzui no ato nosyashinwosyoukai shite watashi no presentation woowaritai to omoimasu.
  • Thank you for your attention and question pls.

Thai flood 2011 and risk perception (Japanese) Thai flood 2011 and risk perception (Japanese) Presentation Transcript

  • タイ洪水被害2011: 洪水リスク認識 博士 2年 渡邊研究室 ピリヤ ウライウォン2012/2/2 1
  • タイの洪水2012/2/2 www.youtube.com 2
  • Outline• 2011年のタイ洪水はどのようにして起 こったのか?• アユタヤ地域の工業団地における洪水状 況• 洪水の影響• 洪水リスク認識2012/2/2 3 View slide
  • 2012/2/2 4 View slide
  • タイ洪水2011の主な原因• 度重なる勢力の強いモンスーンの襲来• 森林伐採 と土地利用の変化• ダムのマネジメント2012/2/2 5
  • 台風とモンスーン Hai Ma Nok Ten6月16-20日 7月24-31日 Ne Sad Hai Tang Typhoon Nal Ge 9月23-30日 9月24-27日 2012/2/2 9月26日-10月5日 6
  • タイの降雨量比較2006-2011年2012/2/2 7
  • 森林伐採 & 土地利用の変化2012/2/2 8
  • ダムのマネジメント タイ 湾Source: http://www.egat.co.th/2012/2/2 9
  • ダムのマネジメント 63%2012/2/2 10
  • ダムのマネジメント2012/2/2 11
  • ダムのマネジメント Dam Flood plane 610 m3/sec 2040 m3/sec 3500 m3/sec Chao pra ya river at Nakon Sawan Province2012/2/2 12
  • 2012/2/2 13
  • 2012/2/2 14
  • バンパコン川 タ-ギン チャオプラヤー 河 これら大量のクジラをタイ湾へ出来るだけ早く逃がす事が重要2012/2/2 15
  • 100万頭/ 日 タイ 湾 50 日必要 しかし、1日に流せる川の能力は百万頭だけ。2012/2/2 16
  • 洪水状況2012/2/2 ftp://203.146.129.140/flood/y2011/FL82_Extra/20111123-flood-animation0321.gif 17
  • 洪水の状況2012/2/2 18
  • 2012/2/2 19
  • 2011-10-04 2011-10-09 2011-10-132012/2/2 2011-10-15 20
  • 2012/2/2 http://situation.thaiflood.com/ali_time_series/0001/ 21
  • 2012/2/2http://situation.thaiflood.com/ali_time_series/0001/ 22
  • 2012/2/2http://situation.thaiflood.com/ali_time_series/0001/ 23
  • タイ国内総生産 サハラナタコン工業団地の 43 工場 1. ロジャナ工業団地 198 工場 2. (GDP)の ハイーテック工業団地 143工場 3. バン-パ-イン 89 工場 4. 約1.5%を占め ファクトリーランド工業団地 572 工場 5. ナワナコン工業団地 227 工場 6. る バンカディ工業団地 44 工場 7.2012/2/2 24
  • 2012/2/2 25
  • 洪水の影響 公共部門 – 被災者 13,595,192 – 被災家屋 4,086,138 – 死亡者数 693 – 被災文化財件数 313 – 避難者数 1,820,931 – 避難場所数 1,739 – 被災教育施設 3,0882012/2/2 26
  • 洪水の影響 経済部門 – 被害総額は45億USDにのぼる(世界銀行の試算による) – 農業 浸水農地 12.61 million ha. – 工業 • 浸水工業団地 7 団地 • 工場 883 • 被災労働者 382,693 – 旅行 • 被害額 150 million yen2012/2/2 27
  • サプライチェーンへの影響2012/2/2 http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/T111017004860.htm 28
  • サプライチェーンへの影響• ハードディスクドライブ: 世界生産量の 25%• 半導体: 世界生産量の10-12%• 日本の自動車産業 : 6,000 cars/日の損出• ニコン (Thailand):デジタルカメラ生産量の 約80%• ハードディスクドライバーのモーター: 世 界供給量の約80%2012/2/2 29
  • 2012/2/2 30
  • 洪水リスクマネジメント リスクの リスクの 認識 伝達 認識 対応2012/2/2 (Stewart and Quinn, 2004) 31
  • 洪水リスクの認識 •個々や社会コミュニティーの判断 •情報量の差や不確実性のレベル差 によって個々で大きく変わる 洪水 コウズイ こうず い (Slovic, 1987)2012/2/2 32
  • 個人のリスクの認識と対応社会的-文化的背景 Riskリスクの特徴 個別認識 attitude個人の リスクの認 リスクの リスクへの利点 知 理解 反応 (Baan and Kliin, 2004)2012/2/2 33
  • 工業団地の洪水リスク認識• 洪水リスク認識は低い この様な被害が本当に起こるとは思ってい ない 洪水の被害にあうとは考えていない 洪水対策の過信; 堤防は十分高く、強い2012/2/2 34
  • 工業団地の土豪2012/2/2 35
  • 洪水リスクの理解を促進• リスク情報の伝達によって、災害への備 えに対する個人の意識を高める• リスクの無い社会は無いという事を理解 する• 一般市民と行政との信頼を確立する (Motoyoshi, 2006)2012/2/2 36
  • 現在の状況2012/2/2 37
  • 2012/2/2 38